If you like longshots, you're going to love PGA Tour betting this week.
The tournament now simply called The American Express has seen more than its share of unexpected champions over the years. The event, which will be played over PGA West's Nicklaus Tournament Course and Stadium Course, has produced winners with average odds of well over 100-to-1 over the past decade. And that should make things interesting when it comes to outright player wagers.
We preview the field, break down the course and PGA odds, and give our best American Express picks and predictions:
PGA WEST Betting Stats that Matter
Let's start with the Tournament Course, which will play host to one of the first two rounds for the full field. It features wide fairways, non-punitive rough and some of the largest, flattest greens you'll find on the entire PGA tour. If players aren't putting up scores in the low-to-mid 60s in their 18-hole stints here, they're going to find themselves behind entering the weekend.
The main course (unintentional food reference) is the Stadium Course, a Pete Dye design that has more teeth than the Nicklaus layout but should still yield low scores. Both courses measure shorter than 7,200 yards, and while the Stadium Course has smaller greens, players with strong SG: Approach and SG: Putting metrics will dominate this week. Those are the stats to target.
The American Express Outright Winner Bets
Jon Rahm's withdrawal has opened up the top tier of outright favorites this week. Six players are listed between +1,200 and +2,000, with the sextet led by Patrick Cantlay. Patrick Reed and Scottie Scheffler (+1,600) are next in line, followed by Brooks Koepka (+1,800), who will be making his 2021 debut. Tony Finau and SungJae Im round out the group at +2,000.
Who will win The American Express? Here are our best-value picks:
Abraham Ancer (+2,500)
Ancer came tantalizingly close to earning his first career PGA Tour win here last year, riding a 66-63 weekend to a second-place finish at 24-under. He has shot a combined 40-under in his previous two tournaments at PGA West, with six of his eight rounds coming in at 67 or better. And while his Strokes Gained numbers won't wow you, he is seventh in driving accuracy, 28th in greens in regulation and 33rd in birdie average – all of which play well at a course like this.
Russell Henley (+2,800)
The only deficiency in Henley's game at this point is the flat stick – and the greens he'll face this week might very well fix what's ailing him. Otherwise, Henley has been one of the best all-around players on tour in the new season, arriving in La Quinta ranked ninth in SG: Total (1.809) thanks largely to a fifth-place showing in SG: Tee-to-Green (1.673). He's also eighth in scoring average (69.395), and is coming off an impressive T11 at last weekend's Sony Open in Hawaii.
The American Express Matchup Predictions
Cameron Champ Over Brooks Koepka/Paul Casey (+200)
The Champ is here – and he'll be looking to build on a positive result at last year's competition, when he put together a 15-under showing en route to a 21st-place finish. Champ's SG: Tee-to-Green rating is strong, and he'll be able to use that third-ranked driving distance to shorten the course without being punished much for missing the fairway (most of the time). Koepka hasn't played the Stadium Course, while Casey has had mixed results here. At this price, Champ is a solid choice.
Patrick Cantlay over Phil Mickelson/Rickie Fowler (+110)
The new season has been very kind to Cantlay, who has a victory, three other Top 25s and more than $2 million in earnings over his first six events. He last played in this event in 2019, finishing eighth with an impressive 18-under total. Fowler has played unimpressive golf in 2020-21, while Mickelson hasn't posted a Top 25 result in five events this season and missed the cut at this event last year (though he did finish second in 2019). Cantlay is playing far better than either opponent right now.
The American Express Prop Bets
Patrick Reed Top-10 Finish (+160)
While there are big names in this field, the fact that any player can get hot and dominate (and has, over the past decade) makes top-x prop wagers a little riskier this week. That said, Reed has been consistently strong this year (with a T13, T14, T10 and T21 in his four events) and ranks third in birdie average, which suits him perfectly to this weekend's track meet. He hasn't played here since 2018 (when he missed the cut), but he's playing sensational golf and should contend.
Zach Johnson Top-20 Finish (+200)
A wonky first round torpedoed Johnson's shot at a decent finish last week, but he did well to rebound with a 65-68-68 finish at the Sony Open. He already has four Top-25 results in seven tournaments, and comes in ranked 14th on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting (0.880), which will help at the Stadium Course. He's also ranked 26th in SG: Total (1.204) and finished 20th at this tournament in 2018. Given his credentials, these odds seem too high, so we're snagging this one as a value play.
The American Express Betting Card
- Abraham Ancer Outright (+2,500)
- Russell Henley Outright (+2,800)
- Cameron Champ Over Brooks Koepka/Paul Casey (+200)
- Patrick Cantlay over Phil Mickelson/Rickie Fowler (+110)
- Patrick Reed Top-10 Finish (+160)
- Zach Johnson Top-20 Finish (+200)
Where Can I Bet on PGA Golf?
With PGA betting growing in popularity, pretty much all online sportsbooks will offer golf odds for The American Express. Check out our top listings page for the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what PGA Tour odds they have available.
