Dustin Johnson gave his PGA Tour rivals a break by skipping last week's event at Pebble Beach – but they'll get no such mercy this week.
Johnson is the overwhelming favorite to prevail at the Genesis Invitational, the final event on the tour's West Coast leg and the unofficial kick-off of the path to The Masters at Augusta National. Johnson took a week off following his win in Saudi Arabia but will return at the Riviera Country Club. Yet, while he has the lowest odds in the field, it's also one of the stronger collections of competitors we've seen this year.
We preview the field, break down the course and give our golf picks, predictions and best bets for the Genesis Invitational.
Riviera Golf Course betting stats that matter
Riviera is nearly 100 years old, but it still has most of its original teeth. The par-71 course features narrow fairways and tricky greens which feature the ever-popular poa annua grass, one of the more challenging surfaces out there. If this all sounds familiar, that's because these exact conditions greeted golfers at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines back in late January.
That makes the blueprint for success easy to follow here, at least in terms of the metrics that matter. SG: Off-the-Tee will matter a lot, not only because of the narrow fairways but because this course features rough and bunkers that can be especially tricky to navigate. SG: Approach and SG: Around the Green are also critical at Riviera; if you miss the putting surface, you're in trouble.
Genesis Invitational outright winner bets
DJ is way ahead of the field in oddsmakers' eyes, listed at +550 to win. The more interesting development, however, is the group behind him, with four players carrying identical +1,200 odds: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele. Patrick Cantlay (+1,400) and Bryson DeChambeau (+1,600) are the only other players south of +2,000 to win outright.
Who will win the Genesis Invitational? Here's our best guess:
Dustin Johnson (+550)
The Genesis Invitational title will likely go to a player who is surgical in how he approaches the course – and DJ is the ultimate tactician, with few weaknesses in his game. He has a whopping nine Top-10 performances in the 13 tournaments he has played at Riviera, including a win in 2017. He checks off every box on your betting form – strong overall game, terrific course history and elite recent form. The payout might pale in comparison to the field, but no one is better positioned to in this weekend.
Bryson DeChambeau (+1,600)
Casual golf fans and bettors might think of DeChambeau's game as more of a blunt instrument than a symphony – but make no mistake, this guy is one of the most versatile players in the world. DeChambeau is the tour leader in SG: Total (2.985), a number fueled by incredible success off the tee (highlighted by a tour-best 329.3 average yards per drive). He finished fifth here a year ago and has the all-around game to challenge Johnson and the rest of the tour elite this weekend.
Genesis Invitational matchup predictions
Brooks Koepka Over Tony Finau (+100)
More than one golf analyst has compared Riviera to Augusta in how the two courses require players to be a little more precise with every shot they hit. If that's the case, then Koepka could thrive this weekend. He has finished second and seventh in the last two Masters tournaments and ranks eighth in SG: Total for the 2020-21 season (1.881). Finau is having a terrific season, but his struggles with the flat stick are just enough of a concern to lead us to Koepka in this matchup at superior odds.
Corey Conners Over Francesco Molinari (+100)
You'll find a whole lot of missed cuts at Riviera when reviewing the resumes of Conners and Molinari – but we're bullish on the Canadian in this matchup, because his recent form is much more impressive. Conners has produced six Top-20 results in his last eight PGA Tour appearances and that consistency should give him confidence heading into Riviera. Molinari, on the other hand, has two missed cuts and a 59th place in his last six events – and that makes us leery of looking his way.
Genesis Invitational prop bets
Francesco Molinari to Miss Cut (+137)
We don't mean to pick on Molinari here, but Riviera has been an arch-nemesis of sorts in recent years. Not only has he missed the cut there in each of his previous three appearances, but he came up short by five, two and seven shots in those tournaments. That's an awful lot of ground to make up – and in what is easily one of the strongest fields of the season to date, we don't see Molinari suddenly figuring this course out. We're all in on a missed cut at this price.
Adam Scott Top-20 Result (+125)
This feels like a bit of disrespect toward the defending tournament champ, who rode a second-round 64 to a two-shot victory – his second career triumph on this course (the first coming way back in 2005). Scott also has a pair of second-place results at Riviera, in case you were wondering if those wins were flukes. Scott still has a solid all-around game, and his extensive familiarity with one of the most unique courses on the tour will give him a significant edge over the field.
Genesis Invitational betting card
- Dustin Johnson Outright (+550)
- Bryson DeChambeau Outright (+1600)
- Brooks Koepka Over Tony Finau (+100)
- Corey Conners Over Francesco Molinari (+100)
- Francesco Molinari to Miss Cut (+137)
- Adam Scott Top-20 Result (+125)
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