AT&T Byron Nelson Picks and Predictions: TPC Craig Ranch Designed for DeChambeau

There's no discount on FedExCup points leader Bryson DeChambeau this week, but the co-favorite at this weekend's AT&T Byron Nelson has a playstyle perfectly designed for TPC Craig Ranch.

Last Updated: May 12, 2021 11:37 AM ET
Bryson DeChambeau PGA Tour
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The AT&T Byron Nelson Championship at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas will serve as the final tune-up before next week's PGA Championship—but at least one big-name player won't be teeing it up this week.

Dustin Johnson has already withdrawn from the event with a knee injury that leaves his status for the second major of the 2021 PGA Tour season in doubt.

But fret not, PGA betting fans: There's still plenty of star power converging on the Tom Weiskopf-designed course, which only opened in 2004 and has hosted just two professional tournaments (none since 2012).

It should be an interesting week from a betting perspective, with the majority of the field not having played here before.

We preview the field, break down the course and give our golf betting picks, predictions and best bets for the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship.

TPC Craig Ranch betting stats that matter

TPC Craig Ranch is similar in a lot of ways to another Weiskopf design, TPC Scottsdale. And that's a great place for bettors to begin their research, with little empirical data available on this week's course. That means we're bound to see long drivers rewarded handsomely, with the rare opportunity for the biggest hitters to drive the odd par-4 at this 7,438-yard, par-72 layout.

SG: Off-the-Tee is going to be a popular metric to attack this week, as is SG: Approach from 125 yards in. Those of you who care more about the putting surfaces will want to target players who excel on Bentgrass greens and SG: Putting, in general, is a good statistic to prioritize given just how many birdie opportunities this relatively flat course will yield if the Texas winds stay calm.

AT&T Byron Nelson outright winner bets

Despite Johnson's untimely withdrawal, we still have a who's-who of PGA Tour elite atop the outright odds list. Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau are the co-favorites at +800, with Texas native Jordan Spieth next at +1,000. There's a modest gap to the next tier of golfers, which includes Daniel Berger (+1,600), Scottie Scheffler (+1,800) and Masters champ Hideki Matsuyama, who is even with Matt Fitzpatrick at +2,000.

Who will win the AT&T Byron Nelson? Here are our best picks:

Bryson DeChambeau (+800)

You're not getting a discount on Bryson this week, but that shouldn't dissuade you from loading up on the No. 1 player in the current FedExCup standings.

This is the exact kind of course that plays into DeChambeau's strengths: He'll be able to let it rip without having to worry nearly as much about the repercussions of errant drives, and has the elite short game and putting to capitalize on his birdie chances. DeChambeau won't even have to be at his best to contend here.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2,000)

How's this for a seven-tournament stretch heading into the Byron Nelson Championship: T5, T11, T10, T9, T18, T34, T4. Fitzpatrick is one of the top players on the PGA Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, and while he doesn't rank among the league leaders in driving distance, he makes up for it with pinpoint accuracy and a strong iron game.

Add in the No. 11 SG: Putting average on tour, and you have the makings of a legitimate contender at a reasonable price tag.

AT&T Byron Nelson matchup predictions

Scottie Scheffler Over Daniel Berger (-110)

Scheffler, a Texas native, is on a roll with three straight Top-30 results and has vaulted himself all the way up to 15th in SG: Off-the-Tee. He's inside the Top 35 in greens in regulation success rate and that will help him tremendously at this track meet of an event.

Berger is a worthy opponent, with eight Top 25s in 13 events this season, but Scheffler's superior off-the-tee play in recent weeks and 95th-percentile ranking in adjusted strokes gained gives him a slight edge here.

Harris English Over Jason Day (-110)

Here's the shortest poem you'll read this week: Jason Day has lost his way. The 2015 PGA champion has hit a rut as he continues to search for the right equipment mix, coming off back-to-back missed cuts at The Masters and the Wells Fargo Championship.

He's no longer the birdie machine he once was and will have difficulty keeping pace with the field. English ranks 14th on tour in birdie average, and that will ultimately make the difference in this 72-hole matchup.

AT&T Byron Nelson prop bets

Jon Rahm Top-10 Finish (-138)

Rahm saw his cut streak end at 22 at last week's Wells Fargo Championship, but bettors shouldn't be overly concerned. Gusty winds were a factor Friday and Rahm had gone 0-for-8 on up-and-down attempts a day earlier, which almost certainly won't happen again in our lifetime.

He has nine Top-10 finishes in 14 events this season, and three Top 10s in six trips to TPC Scottsdale, the closest comp to this course. He's a terrific bet to finish among the leaders this week.

James Hahn to Make Cut (-143)

It has been an incredibly tough haul for Hahn since posting a T41 at The Players Championship in mid-March. He withdrew from the Honda Classic the following week with a rib injury, then proceeded to miss his next three cuts.

But his season peripherals are still strong: He had made nine of 12 cuts prior to his current cold streak, he ranks first on the tour in par-4 scoring average (3.94) and finished second at the 2012 Nationwide Tour Championship held on this course. We're high on a bounce-back.

AT&T Byron Nelson betting card

  • Bryson DeChambeau outright (+800)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick outright (+2,000)
  • Scottie Scheffler Over Daniel Berger (-110)
  • Harris English Over Jason Day (-110)
  • Jon Rahm Top-10 Finish (-138)
  • James Hahn to Make Cut (-143)

Where can I bet on the PGA?

You can bet on PGA odds at many online and casino sportsbooks, including PGA outrights, matchup bets, and other golf props. Head over to our best golf betting sites for the top spots to bet on PGA odds in your area.

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