⛳ Valspar Championship: Key takeaways
- Best early bet: Matt Fitzpatrick to win (+1600) – Game fits the demands of the Copperhead Course and just gained true strokes across the board at THE PLAYERS to finish second.
- Best early value: Ryo Hisatsune to win (+4000) – Finished T4 here last year and carded his fourth Top 20 across six events while ranking third in true strokes gained tee-to-green last week.
- Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) is a 7,352-yard Par 71 featuring narrow, treelined fairways with plenty of doglegs that have traditionally rewarded accurate ball-strikers who take advantage of the four Par 5s.
- Weather: Early forecasts are favorable for scoring conditions with mostly sunny and dry weather, with Round 1 on Thursday a potential outlier due to gusty wings.
- Expected cut: The Top 65 players and ties after Round 2 will advance to the weekend, and the cut has been between +1 and +3 the past three years.
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Valspar Championship odds: favorites & full field
The Valspar Championship runs March 19-22 at Copperhead Course. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.
| Golfer |  |
|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | +1000 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +1600 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1600 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +2000 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | +2200 |
| Brooks Koepka | +2500 |
| Jordan Spieth | +2500 |
| Justin Thomas | +2500 |
| Corey Conners | +2800 |
Odds as of Monday, March 16, at 10:48 a.m. ET.
Check out the full Valspar Championship field.
Course breakdown: What wins at Copperhead Course?
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) is a difficult 7,352-yard Par 71 featuring narrow, treelined fairways with plenty of doglegs, water hazards, and bunkers. The track has traditionally rewarded accurate ball-strikers who take advantage of the four Par 5s, and there are also five Par 3s ranging between 195-235 yards.
Copperhead has also played more difficult the past three years, with the winning score ranging between -10 and -12, after Sam Burns carded -17 in both of his back-to-back wins in 2022 and 2023.
Additionally, this layout plays longer than its yardage because of the doglegs and often penalizing rough. Accuracy off the tee and strong long-iron play are musts with one of the most common approach distances historically being from 175-200 yards. Designer Larry Packard has 12 doglegs on the layout, including signature double doglegs on four holes. The elevation changes are also atypical of the three most recent stops on the Florida Swing.
Excellent ball-striking had been a trait of each of the eight winners from 2015 through 2023, as they all finished Top 6 in true strokes gained tee-to-green.
Peter Malnati finished 13th in the metric while ranking third in true strokes gained putting in 2024, while 2025 winner Viktor Hovland respectively ranked 11th and second.
Finally, while The Snake Pit garners desired attention as a demanding three-hole finish, the entire course has been challenging the past three years, with the rough grown higher and closer to the putting surfaces.
- Narrow, treelined fairways and doglegs often take driver out of play
- Overseeded Bermudagrass featured throughout
- Five long Par 3s (195-235 yards)
- Course knowledge and experience are rewarded
- The Snake Pit is one of the most difficult finishing stretches on tour
Players to watch
- Jordan Spieth: The 2015 winner is beginning to string together a nice run of solid approach play and excellent putting.
- Justin Thomas: Finished solo second here last year for his fourth Top 10 in the event, and his game flashed at THE PLAYERS during a T8 finish.
- Brooks Koepka: A T9-T13 run entering the week, Koepka’s trending in the right direction, and will be playing this event for the first time since his T12 in 2022.
Key stats & player profiles to target
- True strokes gained on approach
- Par-5 scoring
- Bogey avoidance
- Scrambling/true strokes gained around the green
- True strokes gained tee-to-green
Players to watch
- Matt Fitzpatrick: Finished second in true strokes gained tee-to-green last week in THE PLAYERS and ranks sixth in birdie-or-better leaders and 19th in adjusted scoring average this PGA Tour season.
- Xander Schaueffle: The betting favorite has carded a T12-T5-T12 run in this event, and he’s carded four consecutive Top 25s while gaining true strokes across the board after finishing third at THE PLAYERS.
- Ryo Hisatsune: Carded his fourth Top 20 across his past six events while ranking third in true strokes gained tee-to-green last week, and he’s gained true strokes off the tee and on approach in each of his past seven events.
Odds movement & market notes
This field is deeper with proven PGA Tour and international winners than many of the most recent editions of the Valspar Championship, with major champions Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and Brooks Koepka all hovering atop the odds board. Additionally, Viktor Hovland, Akshay Bhatia, and Jacob Bridgeman are all in solid form and check in as chalky contenders.
Golf bettors often look to the top of the board, so I'm anticipating Schauffele and Fitzpatrick to be popular bets early this week following strong showings in THE PLAYERS, while the popularity of Thomas and Hovland also draws plenty of action.
Finally, I'm interested to see the betting numbers for Koepka at BetMGM this week. He opened at +2500 and has carded a T8-T13 run across his past two events, so I also expect him to be highly touted and bet leading in Round 1.
How to watch & tee times
How to watch:
- Thursday and Friday: 2-6 p.m. ET, Golf Channel
- Saturday and Sunday: 1-3 p.m. ET, Golf Channel, and 3-6 p.m. ET, NBC
Tee times:
- Round 1 and 2 tee times and featured groups should be released on the official PGA Tour website Tuesday, March 17.
Valspar Championship betting FAQ
When is the 2026 Valspar Championship?
The 2026 edition of the Valspar Championship is Thursday, March 19, to Sunday, March 22.
Where will the 2026 Valspar Championship be played?
The 2026 Valspar Championship is being played at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) in Palm Harbor, Florida.
What is the “Florida Swing?”
The Valspar Championship is the fourth and final event of the "Florida Swing," which is a series of tournaments played on the state's challenging Bermudagrass courses.
Who is the 2026 Valspar Championship favorite?
Xander Schauffele is the pre-tournament betting favorite in the Valspar Championship odds at BetMGM, followed by Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland.
What are Valspar Championship FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which player(s) will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do Valspar Championship matchup bets work?
When betting Valspar Championship matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two players listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the Valspar Championship cut line?
The Top 65 players and ties after Round 2 (36 holes) will advance to the weekend, and the cut has been between +1 and +3 the past three years.
Are Valspar Championship odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You'll see slight variations in odds across sportsbooks for the Valspar Championship; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
