Stars vs Avalanche Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Avs Star Outshines Dallas

The Stars are tired and Jake Oettinger has looked oddly human this month — our NHL picks think it sounds like a prime time for the Avalanche's Nathan MacKinnon to keep setting nets ablaze.

Apr 1, 2023 • 13:16 ET • 4 min read
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Two teams in the hunt for the Central Division crown will collide at Ball Arena on Saturday when the Colorado Avalanche welcome the Dallas Stars.

Dallas, which held top spot in the division up until recently, has slowed down of late with four wins in its last eight games. Meanwhile, Colorado remains one of the hottest clubs in the NHL, going 9-2-0 in its last 11 contests as Nathan MacKinnon has been on fire with 10 goals and 24 points in March.

Can MacKinnon and the Avs keep up their hot streak as they skate into April? Dive into our Stars vs. Avalanche NHL picks and predictions for Saturday, April 1, and find out.

Stars vs Avalanche best odds

Stars vs Avalanche picks and predictions

Dallas comes into tonight’s game on the second half of a back-to-back after defeating Arizona 5-2 on Friday. Jason Robertson led the charge with a goal and three assists, marking his third multi-point outing in his last six contests.

We don’t usually see goalies take the net on consecutive nights, but Jake Oettinger faced just 18 shots on Friday and will return to the cage against Colorado. The Stars netminder went 9-2-1 in March, but his record wasn’t really reflective of his play, as he posted a .898 SV% and a 3.07 GAA. 

Oettinger has been pretty good against the Avalanche this season, though, holding them to three goals in a 7-3 win on March 4 and just two regulation goals in a 3-2 shootout loss on November 21. He also hasn’t allowed more than two goals against in three straight starts, so perhaps Oettinger is coming out of his slump.

Colorado comes into the contest following a 4-2 loss to Minnesota on Wednesday but remains one of the NHL’s hottest clubs. Since March 11, the beginning of a six-game win streak, the Avalanche have accumulated nine wins and 18 points, tied for the top marks in the league over that span.

With 18 points in 11 games since that date, Nathan MacKinnon trails only Connor McDavid (20) and Leon Draisaitl (20) for the most in the NHL. The Avs star has recorded just one goal through his last three matchups against the Stars, but I’m going to bet that one of the league’s top players will stay hot tonight with another multi-point outing.

My best bet: Nathan MacKinnon Over 1.5 points (-125)

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Stars vs Avalanche moneyline analysis

The Avalanche opened as the -142 favorite at home, but have now been bumped up to around -160 at most books. Colorado comes in on two days of rest against a Dallas team that’s traveling in from Arizona, so on top of being the hotter team, the Avs should also be fresher.

There hasn’t been much difference between the two clubs in head-to-head meetings, with the last 10 being split at five wins apiece. The Stars have enjoyed success as the visitors, though, winning six of the last eight meetings at Ball Arena.

Where I could see Colorado having a significant edge is on the power play — the Avs rank tied for second in the NHL at 25.2%, but have converted on a whopping 38.2% of their man advantage opportunities since March 11. Dallas is strong on the penalty, ranking third in the league this season (83.3%), but it’s going to be hard to contain Colorado’s power play if it gets numerous chances.

MacKinnon and Cale Makar have also been one of the deadliest offensive duos in the NHL during Colorado’s hot streak — the pair have combined for 33 points and 16 power-play points, with Makar’s 15 points ranking first among all defensemen since March 11.

The Stars have been good at containing the Avs’ attack in a lot of their previous matchups, but MacKinnon and Makar look pretty much unstoppable right now, and I’m not sure Dallas has an answer.

Stars vs Avalanche Over/Under analysis

The total for this one opened at six goals and has remained steady there at most books, with a couple bumping up to 6.5. Given some trends we’ve seen from both teams, I think the Over is the play tonight.

The Avalanche have been playing some high-scoring games, with seven of their last 10 outings featuring at least six total goals, including each of their last three. The Stars have trended the same way — since the start of March, Dallas has seen at least six goals in 11 of its 15 contests.

The Stars also tend to score in bunches, with the Over going 5-0 in the last five games after scoring five or more in their previous contest. The Over has also cashed in nine of Dallas’ last 10 games following a victory.

The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the clubs, but their last matchup featured 10 goals, and the three prior were all close with five. 

With Oettinger not necessarily on top of his game right now and the Avs averaging just under 4 GPG since the start of their hot streak, I can definitely envision a higher-scoring contest tonight. 

Stars vs Avalanche betting trend to know

The Under is 13-4-2 in Colorado’s last 19 games vs. the Central Division. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs Avalanche.

Stars vs Avalanche game info

Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Date: Saturday, April 1, 2023
Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Southwest, Altitude

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