Oilers vs Panthers Prop Picks and Best Bets: Leon Lets It Fly

Prop bet #1: Lean on Leon

Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl is a go-to shooter with the man advantage, and he finished with four shots on six attempts across 23:12 of ice time in Game 1.

I’m anticipating the Florida Panthers showing more possession bite in Game 2, but Draisaitl finished with a 68.6 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 to top Edmonton forwards, meaning there’s room for negative regression without it being a huge hit to his shooting opportunities.

Draisaitl also benefits from jumping up to flank Connor McDavid on the No. 1 line for stretches while also avoiding top on-ice matchups when centering the second line. It's helped him clear this 2.5-shot total in 13 of 19 playoff contests while averaging 3.2 per game.

Leon Draisaitl prop: Over 2.5 shots (-130 at BET99)

Prop bet #2: Saves coming for Skinner

The Panthers jumping out to an early lead in Game 1 put them on the defensive, and they converted just 42.9% of their attempts into shots, which is slightly below the 46.1% mark they converted through the first three rounds.

Additionally, Florida recording just 18 shots and 42 attempts is way below the 34.5 and 75.1 marks per 60 minutes it recorded on home ice prior to the series opener against the Oilers.

I’m expecting Florida to put far more shots on net tonight, and we’re landing a lower saves total for Stuart Skinner than the 27.5 number in Game 1.

The 5-on-5 possession battle was lopsided in Edmonton’s favor — a 58.6 Corsi For percentage — but when adjusted for score and venue, the Oil had a 55.0 CF%. A closer game, or Florida falling behind, will lead to more shots and attempts from the Cats and more saves for Skinner.

Stuart Skinner prop: Over 26.5 saves (-125 at BET99)

Prop bet #3: Oil breakthrough Bobrovsky 

Edmonton generated 3.74 expected goals on 18 high-danger scoring chances in Game 1, and more of the same will result in more pucks going past Sergei Bobrovsky.

Plus, as good as Bobrovsky has been, he posted a postseason-high .858 SV% against high-danger shots through the first three rounds. He stopped all 13 in Game 1 to climb to an even higher .872 mark that’s set for statistical correction.

Even with the Oilers getting blanked in the opener, they're still averaging 3.32 goals per game, 3.12 expected goals per 60 minutes, and didn’t score with the man advantage Saturday. There's also always the potential for an empty-net situation or overtime to help the Edmonton bury the third goal late if needed.

Oilers prop: Over 2.5 goals (-125 at BET99)