Red Wings vs Maple Leafs Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s NHL Game

Auston Matthews is on history's doorstep, and as he goes for 70 goals, our NHL picks are backing the Leafs sniper to keep the pressure on a leaky Red Wings defense.

Apr 13, 2024 • 09:50 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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We’ve got 13 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including a matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Detroit Red Wings.

The NHL Odds have Toronto heavily favored tonight, but my focus is on the Auston Matthews prop market with 70 goals in reach.

Find out why in my free NHL picks and Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs predictions for this April 13 matchup.

Red Wings vs Maple Leafs prediction

My best bet
Auston Matthews Over 4.5 shots on goal (-125 at SIA)

My analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings will meet for the third and final time this season as the Buds conclude their home schedule for the regular season tonight. 

Toronto is looking to bounce back after a sloppy loss to the New Jersey Devils Thursday night, but so are the Red Wings, who are eager to get back in the win column after falling out of the wildcard position with a loss to the Penguins two nights ago.

That said, I’m looking at the player prop market to find tonight’s best bet, and for me, that has to be an Auston Matthews prop, and with his shot market at 4.5, I’m taking the Over for my best bet of the night. 

The Leafs are averaging 32.4 shots per game over their last 10 games, led by Matthews, who averages 5.3 pucks on goal over that stretch since being united with Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi. He’s become the go-to trigger man on the line, and he’s being force-fed pucks incessantly the closer he gets to 70 goals. 

Plus, this is the Maple Leafs’ final home game of the regular season, which means it’ll be Mathews last chance to get to 70 on home ice. I expect him to be very active in the shot department tonight as he tries to make that happen with just two goals to go until he hits that milestone. 

As for the matchup, the Wings have been pretty leaky on defense in their last 10 games, allowing an average of 33.1 shots on goal per game, the fifth-highest shot volume allowed in the NHL over that stretch. 

So, there should be plenty of volume available for Matthews to cash the Over here as he tries to get to 70.

Red Wings vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay (SGP)

Auston Matthews anytime goal

Leafs first to score

Leafs moneyline

For leg one of my same-game parlay, we’ll mirror my Auston Matthews shot prop with an anytime goal from the league's top scorer. He has 68 goals on the season, and his line has been on fire at 5-on-5 lately, with Matthews scoring in six straight games as he nears 70. There should be some extra incentive for him to score twice tonight, too, to try and accomplish the milestone on home ice. 

Next up, let's take the Leafs to score first. They’ve cashed this prop in 58.2% of their games this season, including in seven of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Red Wings have allowed the opening goal in 43 of their 79 games (54.4%).

For my final leg, I’ll take the Maple Leafs on the moneyline. The Buds have responded well after bad losses this season, and there should be added motivation for them tonight given that it’ll be their final home game of the regular season. Plus, the Wings have struggled on the road all year, going 16–23 on the moneyline as the away side. Take the Leafs.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Red Wings vs Maple Leafs odds

Red Wings vs Maple Leafs live odds

Red Wings vs Maple Leafs opening odds

  • Puck line: Detroit +1.5 (-155) | Toronto -1.5 (+125)
  • Moneyline: Detroit +150 | Toronto -185
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-135) | Under 6.5 (+110)

Red Wings vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs come into tonight as the strong favorites on home ice at -185, with the Red Wings getting +150 odds as road dogs.

  • The Leafs have won seven of the last 10 meetings between the two teams, and the Wings have a 16-23 moneyline record on the road.

  • The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5 goals, with the Over favored at -135 odds, while the Under is getting plus-money at +110.

  • The Over is just 4-5-1 over the last 10 meetings, and both sides have been hitting Unders more regularly of late as well. 

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Red Wings vs Maple Leafs trend

The Maple Leafs have hit the third period Over in nine of their last 12 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs.

Red Wings vs Maple Leafs game info

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date: Saturday, 4-13-2024
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Detroit, Sportsnet

Red Wings vs Maple Leafs latest injuries

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