Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Bennett Leads Panthers Into Battle

Prop bet #1: Live dogs

The Calgary Flames will wrap up a three-game East Coast road trip tonight against the Montreal Canadiens after dropping the first two but picking up one point in a shootout loss in Toronto. With all the media attention on Edmonton, the losing narrative has been a little lighter on the Flames, who are likely not looking forward to returning home to the Calgary media thanks to a 4-8-2 start to the season and a poor road trip. 

This is not a good Calgary team and one that is tough to back as a -150 road favorite, even in Montreal. They currently sit in the Bottom 7 in both goals for/60 and goal against/60 at even strength, ranking them 30th in GF%. They also own a sub-50% scoring chance percentage and the goaltending has been horrific for first-year coach Ryan Huska.

The Flames have been slightly unlucky with a poor shooting percentage but they also rank dead last in even-strength save percentage at 86.94, which is nearly 1.5 points worse than the next team. Starter Jacob Markstrom is still day-to-day while Dan Vladar and rookie Dustin Wolf (one start) have combined for -6.0 goals saved above expected over five matches. 

Montreal might not be a great offense, ranking 23rd in goals per game at 2.87, but it has scored at least three goals in four of its last five games and has a great scoring matchup tonight. Being a +130 home dog is also beefing up its team total odds with the Over 3 sitting at +105.

Amazingly, the Flames have allowed three or more goals in all but one of their 14 games this season. The team total Over 2.5 is sitting at -143, which is still a good price if you can swallow that juice. 

Canadiens prop: Team total Over 3 (+105 at SIA)

Prop bet #2: Backing Bennett

Sam Bennett drew back into the Florida Panthers lineup Sunday vs. Chicago and managed over 16 minutes of ice time while still taking four minutes of penalties. That should put him up to his 17-to-18-minute mark ahead of tonight’s nightcap vs. the San Jose Sharks.

Check out what his linemate thinks of his return to the lineup (at 0:33).

Carter Verhaeghe on the importance of having strong showings at home, the return of Sam Bennett and more after the @FlaPanthers win over the Blackhawks today. #TimeToHunt pic.twitter.com/cnRLb0WJ9v

— Bally Sports Florida: Panthers (@BallyPanthers) November 12, 2023

Bennett centered Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe at even strength and played roughly 33% of the power play with the second unit. The Panthers are heavy road favorites in San Jose tonight, which marks the first game of their California road trip where they will also play on Thursday and Friday, making today a key spot in how the road trip goes. 

The Florida team total is implying more than four goals from the Panthers today and Bennett’s role at even strength vs. a Sharks team that ranks dead last in xGF% at 5-on-5 will be a great opportunity to contribute. If Bennett could stay healthy, he could be close to a point-per-game player with his linemates and style of play.

The Florida forward is paying -125 for a point and I have him for a point here at better than a 55% chance. His linemates are much shorter as Tkachuk has a point total of 1.5 and Verhaeghe is priced at -155.    

Sam Bennett prop: Over 0.5 points (-125 at SIA)

Prop bet #3: Johnny struggles

It’s been a piss-poor performance from Johnny Gaudreau with six points and one goal over 15 games. He was benched for the majority of the third period on Sunday and has found himself on the Columbus Blue Jackets' third line. The top power-play unit is also losing some ice share after a 13% success rate to begin the season. 

He could be reunited with Patrick Laine at some point, but with the Jackets picking up a point on Sunday vs. the Rangers and almost pulling out the win in regulation, there is no need for head coach Pascal Vincent to improve Gaudreau’s linemates ahead of tonight’s game vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have goalie Tristan Jarry back.

The Pittsburgh goalie is coming off a 4-0 shutout over the Sabres on Saturday and will have plenty of rest putting him on track to play tonight. The Pens have the No.6 GAA at even-strength at 2.29 thanks to the No.6 save percentage. There could be some motivating factors for Gaudreau here, but the matchup is tough and if he stays on the third line, he won’t have the best opportunities.

Columbus also lost Jack Roslovic to a fractured ankle and his loss (one point off the team lead) won't help the offense. 

Gaudreau is paying +110 to go pointless and has hit the Under in 10 of his 15 games this year. Pittsburgh could dominate the possession game here. 

Johnny Gaudreau prop: Under 0.5 points (+110 at SIA)