Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Stamkos Grounded by Flyers

Prop bet #1: Stam' won't deliver

There is an Eastern Conference tilt in the evening portion of Saturday’s NHL slate with the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Philadelphia Flyers. We are going to fade Tampa Bay forward Steven Stamkos in this contest for multiple reasons.

First, goaltender Samuel Ersson is slated to guard the cage for Philadelphia. Not only has Ersson done a fine job in the crease all season, but he also enters this matchup in particularly dominant form with two straight one-goal performances.

Between those two outings, he boasts a commanding .964 SV% and 0.96 GAA. It certainly helps Ersson’s cause that he plays behind one of the most efficient blue lines in hockey.

The Flyers rank eighth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. Not only does this team prevent high-danger scoring at even-strength, but they also rank first in penalty kill percentage.

That brings us back to Stamkos, who has relied heavily on special teams with over 50% over his point production coming on the man-advantage. If Philadelphia’s penalty kill remains elite once again, then it wouldn’t be surprising if Stamkos is left off the scoresheet altogether, especially considering that he has failed to record a point in six of his past nine games.

Steven Stamkos prop: Under 0.5 points (+130 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Tkachuk wagon

At the same time, the San Jose Sharks host the Ottawa Senators. Oddsmakers expect a lopsided game with Ottawa priced as heavy as -215 on the moneyline while the total remains at 6.5.

These figures bode well for backing a pair of Senators skaters to find the back of the net in this matchup, starting with Brady Tkachuk. Leading the team with 27 goals, Tkachuk has been the go-to guy all season for Ottawa.

Not only does he score proficiently at even-strength, but he also leads the team in power play goals. That is important to mention as San Jose ranks last in penalty minutes taken per game and 31st in penalty kill percentage.

Not that this team is any better at 5-on-5, ranking last in xGA/60. It’s easy to score against the Sharks, which is why Tkachuk has scored in each of his past two outings against them.

Brady Tkachuk prop: Anytime goal (+115 at Bet99 – 0.5 units)

Prop bet #3: Take a Bath'

My thinking here is simple: I am fairly confident that at least one of Drake Batherson or Tkachuk will score against this defensively poor San Jose team. If both score, all the better.

Backing up the Sharks is goaltender Magnus Chrona, who is slated to make his fifth career appearance between the pipes. Predictably, he has struggled mightily through the first four this season, going 0-2-1 with a fade-worthy .830 SV% and 5.83 GAA.

Meanwhile, Batherson enters this contest in tremendous form, scoring in five of his past seven games. He is now second on the team in goals and power play goals, only trailing Tkachuk in each category.

Ottawa last played San Jose on January 13, a game in which it won 5-4. Both Tkachuk and Batherson found the back of the net in that matchup.

Drake Batherson prop: Anytime goal (+205 at Bet99 – 0.5 units)