Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Rossi Keeps Launching Against St. Louis

Prop bet #1: Blades of Rossi

Following an embarrassing 6-0 loss to the Kings on Thursday, the Minnesota Wild have juggled their lines. With Joel Eriksson Ek still out of the lineup, it’s Marco Rossi’s turn to center the top line with Kirill Kaprizov. 

The rookie forward has a great shot-on-goal matchup today vs. the Blues who have been playing competitive hockey and are live dogs today, but are also giving up a ton of shots. 

Only the Blue Jackets are allowing more shots on goal per game over the last 30 days than St. Louis at 33.9 per contest. A lot of those shots are also coming at 5-on-5 which is more predictable. The Blues are giving up 67.5 shot attempts/60 at even strength over the last 10 games which is the third-highest rate in the league. 

The Blues’ recent winning ways could also create a game script where Minnesota is playing from behind giving more shooting opportunities to the top line. 

Rossi is paying a healthy +130 for three or more shots and his elevation to the top line and PP1 is not priced in yet. Rossi’s SAT/60 and SOG/60 marks sit outside the Top 5 on the team, but he has not had this opportunity and the matchup is elite. 

His Over 0.5 assists is +225 which is worth a sniff as Kaprizov has been scoring at will, but because of how well Jordan Binnington has played in net and how many shots the Blues give up, the SOG route is the best in my opinion. 

Marco Rossi prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (+130 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Barrie bomb

The Nashville Predators are the best team in hockey since the All-Star break at a cool 15-2-2. They have the No. 1 offense at 4.05 goals per game and a power play that is hitting at 30% over the last 30 days. The offense has a solid matchup today vs. the Red Wings who do have Dylan Larkin back but still concede goals. 

Detroit’s 4.40 GAA in March is only better than the Sharks’ 4.64. The PK ranks in the Bottom 5 and its 5-on-5 defensive metrics also show a team that loses the expected goal battle significantly — 29th to Nashville’s second. 

There are a lot of markets that look good including Roman Josi for an assist at +105 (21 assists over his last 21 games and a helper in 15 of those games) and Gustav Nyquist for a point at -130 (25 points over his last 25 games), but the one I want the most is Tyson Barrie for a power play point at +500.

The Preds have gone to a non-traditional two-D power-play unit and the veteran blueliner had a PP assist in Thursday’s win vs. a tough Florida team. He was being scratched but has taken advantage of his new opportunities and has two points and seven shots on net over three games since drawing back into the lineup. 

It’s tough to pass up a +500 bet vs. the Red Wings who also take penalties at a Top 6 rate in March. It’s a half-unit play at these great odds.

Tyson Barrie prop: Over 0.5 power play points (+500 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Ladder time

Betting defensemen vs. very bad teams has been an angle I’ve been betting of late to profitable results. Cale Makar had two points and five shots on net vs. the Blue Jackets last night who are one of the worst teams when it comes to allowing shots from opposing defensemen.

I’m sure if you looked at the numbers, you’d also see a Columbus team that gives up a lot of points to defensemen — 15 points from defensemen over the last five games at a quick glance. 

Moritz Seider had a goal and an assist with four SOG vs. the BJs two games ago, Josh Morrissey had three SOG before that, and Roman Josi had seven shots vs. Columbus five games ago. The bottom-feeding team from Ohio has also given up a goal to an opposing D-man in four straight games. Enter Vegas’ Shea Theodore.

The blueliner leads his position in assists/60 in the NHL and is paying +110 to get a helper tonight vs. Columubus who just got thrashed in Colorado last night and has the quick turnaround from altitude.

There is no wrong way to bet Theodore here. You can ladder his assists with one paying +110, two at +550, and three at +1,400. His SOG ladder is also good at o2.5 paying -120, four-plus shots at +210, and five-plus at +450. 

Of all the single plays, though, his Over 0.5 assists at +110 is a steal. He leads all D-men in assists/60 and has about as good a matchup as you can get. This should be -110.

Since returning to the lineup after a long absence in February, Theodore has 15 assists in 14 games and has collected a helper in 11 of those games. This is better than a 50% winner tonight with Vegas likely flirting with four to five goals. The plus money is giving this great expected value. 

Shea Theodore prop: Over 0.5 assists  (+110 at Bet99)