After a blowout loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 2, the Denver Nuggets roared back in Game 3 with an overtime victory to take a 2-1 series lead. Can the Thunder even up the series and head back home with a chance to take the lead, or will Denver pull ahead 3-1 with another strong performance at home?
My Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions expect Aaron Gordon to continue his hot play and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to bounce back from a poor showing.
Read my NBA picks to see which three player props I’m targeting for this matchup.
Who will win Thunder vs Nuggets Game 4?
I’m leaning OKC, but the sense of urgency should be heightened for both squads. The Thunder can ill afford to go down 3-1 in this series, as rattling off three straight against the Nuggets would be a tall order.
Conversely, if the Nuggets lose and the series is tied up 2-2, the Thunder regain home court advantage, with two of the final three games at Paycom Center.
This one went to OT thanks to some more late-game heroics from Aaron Gordon, and the Thunder nearly pulled off a win even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander posting one of his worst offensive performances of the season.
Thunder vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet: Aaron Gordon Over 25.5 points, rebounds, & assists (-115 at bet365)
I’m all in on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bouncing back in Game 4, and my first instinct was to take his points line as my best bet. That was until I saw Aaron Gordon’s combo line sitting pretty at just 25.5. This one is just too good to pass up.
To his credit, Gordon now has a game-winning dunk against the Clippers, a go-ahead three in Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder and a three ball to send the game to OT in Game 3. Not too shabby, right? To put it bluntly, Gordon is cooking right now, and there’s no way I’m not betting on another stellar performance.
Gordon averaged just 20.1 PRA before the All-Star break, but he averaged 27 PRA post break across 19 games to close out the regular season. In that span, he hit the Over on this line in six of nine home games. He carried that success into the playoffs, averaging 27.5 PRA across 10 games, hitting the Over in six and delivering exactly 25 in one more.
During this season’s playoff run, Gordon has gone for at least 26 PRA in four of five at home. He’s been hot against the Thunder, delivering 29.3 PRA per game and hitting the Over twice.
Just how hot has Gordon been? Post All-Star break, he shot 56.6% from the field, 82.9% from the charity stripe and 45.9% from beyond the arc. In the playoffs, his shooting splits are 49.6/90.5/41. He’s been getting to the line 4.2 times and attempting 3.9 triples per game.
Gordon has averaged 3.5 offensive boards per game in the postseason, and he’s ripped down at least five in two of three against a Thunder team that’s allowed the most rebounds per game (46.7) and the third-most offensive rebounds per game (11.4) in the postseason.
Gordon has canned multiple triples against the Thunder in every game of the series, and he’s made 11 straight free throws. He shot at the most efficient clips of his career at the foul line and from distance this season, and I expect him to continue scoring, shooting and rebounding at a high level. Throw in a couple assists, and you’ve got an easy Over.
Thunder vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Aaron Gordon Over 25.5 points, rebounds, & assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points
Jamal Murray 20+ points
SGA finished with just 18 points on 7-of-22 shooting in Game 3 after going for at least 33 points in three straight. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 30.3 points against the Denver Nuggets in four regular season matchups, and he scored at least 30 in one of them.
He finished with at least that many points in 53 of 83 games overall, and he’s hit that mark in four of seven in the playoffs. A bounceback performance on Sunday can help his Thunder even up the series heading back home, and I expect the 2024-25 scoring champ to be far better than he was in Game 3.
Jamal Murray has posted 22.2 points per game across 10 playoff appearances this season, and he’s hit the Over in seven of them, including two of three against the Thunder. Murray has averaged 26 at home compared to 18.4 on the road, and he’s scored 20 or more in four of five at Ball Arena. Fresh off a 27-point showing, expect another 20-pointer from Murray in Game 4.
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Thunder vs Nuggets odds
Thunder vs Nuggets live odds
Thunder vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -5.5 (-115) | Denver +5.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -240 | Denver +195
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 (-110) | Under 227.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oklahoma City is 1-2 ATS in this series.
- The Thunder and Nuggets hit the Over in two of three games in this series.
Thunder vs Nuggets trend
Denver is 4-3 straight up against the Thunder this season, including 2-0 at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Thunder vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Sunday, 5-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, truTV, max |
Thunder vs Nuggets latest injuries
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