Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: On DeBrincat of Glory

Prop bet #1: Nifty Nikita

An Eastern Conference tilt kicks off Sunday’s NHL slate on TNT with the New Jersey Devils hosting the Tampa Bay Lightning. Oddsmakers are expecting a fast-paced, high-scoring affair with the total set at 6.5 with the juice towards the Over.

A big reason for this high total is that goaltender Akira Schmid is slated to guard the cage for New Jersey. Through 15 appearances in the crease this season, Schmid is 5-7-1 with a .893 SV% and 3.25 GAA.

He enters this matchup in particularly poor form, posting a .864 SV% and 3.96 GAA over his past four starts. That brings us to Hart Trophy odds candidate Nikita Kucherov, who co-leads the team in power play goals and leads the team in overall goals.

I mention the power play because the Devils rank just 19th in the league in penalty kill percentage. Kucherov is in great form with nine goals over his past 12 games, with two of those goals coming on the man-advantage.

This success is likely to continue against New Jersey, a team Kucherov has scored 13 times against over their past 20 meetings.

Nikita Kucherov prop: Anytime goalscorer (+110 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Mark of Kane

Later in the evening, Patrick Kane — now of the Detroit Red Wings — will make an emotional return home to the United Center to face the Chicago Blackhawks for the first time in his career. And, in poetic fashion, I expect 88 to score in the house he built.

Kane’s finally found his rhythm in Detroit, scoring four goals over his past six games. It’s also important to note that this Chicago team is in even worse shape than when he left.

This season, it ranks 27th in goals allowed per game and shots on goal allowed per game. The Hawks’ underlying metrics are even worse, ranking second-to-last in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.

Considering his recent form and the Blackhawks’ terrible blue line, the stars are aligning for a return where Kane will probably even get cheered for scoring against his former home crowd.

Patrick Kane prop: Anytime goalscorer (+175 at Bet99 — 0.5 units)

Prop bet #3: DeBrincat's meow

Kane will not be the only former Hawk to return to the United Center on Sunday as Alex DeBrincat will also return to Chicago for just the second time since leaving. My thinking here is simple: I am fairly confident that at least one of Kane or DeBrincat will score against this defensively poor Blackhawks team. And, if both score, all the better.

DeBrincat is second on the team in both goals and power play goals, the latter of which is another avenue where he could find the back of the net in this matchup, as Chicago ranks 22nd in penalty kill percentage. Like Kane, DeBrincat is in solid form as he is coming off a two-goal performance against the St. Louis Blues.

Goaltender Petr Mrazek will be the biggest obstacle for Kane and DeBrincat, and he is confirmed to start in the crease for the Hawks on Sunday. While he has been a brick wall this season, Mrazek is starting to succumb to the ridiculous amount of high danger scoring chances the team in front of him allows.

Mrazek has now allowed three or more goals in four of his past five starts, going 1-2-2 over that stretch with a .904 SV% and 3.63 GAA. That SV% is not even a terrible number, but the guy is facing almost 40 shots a game, many of which come from prime areas of the ice.

Alex DeBrincat prop: Anytime goalscorer (+185 at Bet99 — 0.5 units)