Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Blue Jackets Go Shark Fishing

Prop bet #1: Pest gets bested

The Boston Bruins host the Los Angeles Kings to kick off today's NHL slate. Oddsmakers expect a low-scoring outing in this game, with the total set at 5.5.

Part of this low total is that goaltender David Rittich is expected to guard the cage for Los Angeles. He has been incredible this season, posting a .923 SV% and 2.12 GAA through 14 appearances in the crease.

This success extends to his previous outings against Boston, boasting a career .919 SV% against them through three starts. While Rittich has been excellent, he does play behind one of the best two-way teams in the league.

This season, the Kings rank in the Top 5 in goals allowed and shots on goal allowed per game. Regression is unlikely as they also rank ninth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.

Not only does this team suppress scoring at even strength, but it is also difficult to get the power play going against them as the Kings rank 10th in penalty minutes per game and first in power-play percentage. That brings us to Brad Marchand, who has seen nearly 50% of his points converted on special teams.

If Los Angeles shuts down Boston’s power play, which it frequently does to opposing teams, then Marchand will have difficulty finding the scoresheet, especially considering he has failed to record a point in four of his past six games.

Brad Marchand prop: Under 0.5 points (+160 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Marchenko makes the most of it

Fast forward to Saturday’s NHL nightcap and the San Jose Sharks are taking on the Columbus Blue Jackets. Oddsmakers are expecting a completely different game than the one we walked through above as the total is set at 6.5.

Simply put, San Jose is the easiest team to score against in the league, ranking last in goals allowed and SOG allowed per game.

The Sharks’ underlying metrics are just as poor, ranking last in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. Not only does this team bleed high-danger scoring chances at even strength, but it also struggles on special teams as San Jose ranks 20th in penalty minutes taken per game and 30th in penalty kill percentage.

These woes bring us to Columbus’ Kirill Marchenko, who leads the team in power-play goals. This game presents a great opportunity to a guy who has been a bit snake-bitten in the goal-scoring department recently, but his confidence and willingness to shoot during this stretch make me believe in his ability to turn things around.

He’s recorded three or more shots on goal in seven of his past 11 games, scoring twice over that span. Marchenko is going to keep shooting, and I would not be surprised if he scored either at even strength or on special teams in this contest.

Kirill Marchenko prop: Anytime goal (+210 at Bet99 - 0.5 units)

Prop bet #3: The Jenner handcuff

My thinking here is simple: I am fairly confident that either Marchenko or Boone Jenner will score against this poor San Jose blue line, which guarantees profit. And if both score, all the better.

While Marchenko leads the team in power-play goals, Jenner leads the team in total tallies (and is also second in power-play goals). The captain has been the heartbeat of this team during a tough stretch over these past few years, but his talent and ability to score have never relented.

He has been in particularly good form recently, potting three goals over his past two games while averaging 6.5 SOG. Perhaps the speculatory trade rumors have kicked him into extra gear.

This success is likely to continue against San Jose, a team Jenner has torched in his career with eight goals and four assists through 16 games. Finally, goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood is slated to start between the pipes for the Sharks and should be a good fade candidate.

Through 33 appearances, Blackwood is 9-17-3 with a .899 SV% and 3.49 GAA. He gave up four goals his last time out against the Jackets, a game in which Jenner scored.

Boone Jenner prop: Anytime goal (+145 at Bet99 - 0.5 units)