Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Real World for Robert Thomas

Prop bet #1: Thomas sings the blues

I’m anticipating the St. Louis Blues and No. 1 center Robert Thomas receiving a huge reality check against the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday. The Blues have faced the basement-dwelling San Jose Sharks, Anaheim Ducks, and Chicago Blackhawks in their past three games, and Carolina heads to the Enterprise Center on a 14-3-1 heater while playing elite defense.

Carolina paces the league in Corsi For percentage (59.2%) and expected goals percentage (58.7%) at 5-on-5 while allowing the fewest goals per game (1.83) and topping the NHL in penalty-kill percentage (94.6%) during the stretch. So, with Thomas scorching along on a four-game point streak consisting of two goals and seven assists, this is the perfect spot to bank on his unsustainable offensive surge coming to an end.

Additionally, the biggest reason I’m targeting these Robert Thomas odds is because there is statistical correction ahead of the 30.7 team shooting percentage St. Louis has posted with him on the ice over the past three games. For comparison, the Blues have a 9.9% mark for the season.

Robert Thomas prop: Under 0.5 points (+145 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Wild no match for Sin City

The Minnesota Wild have multiple impact players injured and have been eliminated from the playoffs, while the Vegas Golden Knights are still battling for third place in the competitive Pacific Division. Vegas is also returning to T-Mobile Arena following three straight road losses, so I’m expecting the Golden Knights to show up on home ice this Friday.

Minnesota loaded up its No. 1 line in practice Thursday, with a second line of Marco Rossi, Ryan Hartman, and Marcus Johansson. The trio has only played 61:25 together at 5-on-5, and Hartman and Rossi have been on the ice together for just 2.11 goals per 60 minutes across 142:01. 

I’m also targeting these Ryan Hartman odds because Vegas has been far better defensively on home ice all season. The Golden Knights allow the fifth-fewest goals per game (2.54) and eighth-fewest expected goals per 60 (2.35) at 5-on-5 at T-Mobile compared to respective 23rd-ranked 3.39 and 16th-ranked 2.63 marks on the highway.

Ryan Hartman prop: Under 0.5 points (-140 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Lacking Backlund

This is the second leg of a back-to-back spot and the third game on the highway in four nights for the Calgary Flames, and they dropped to 4-12 since the trade deadline while scoring the fifth-fewest goals per game (2.38) following Thursday's loss to the Los Angeles Kings. With the Anaheim Ducks allowing the third-most goals per game (3.58) this season, this should be a bounce-back matchup for Calgary, but I’m expecting the Ducks to continue pushing to finish the season strong.

The Ducks have a number of players auditioning and looking to strengthen their case for roster spots next year, and Anaheim just beat the Kings 3-1 on Tuesday. They also pulled off a 5-3 road upset over the Flames last week. 

Turning to Calgary center Mikael Backlund, he’s only marked the scoresheet in three of the past 16 games and has been on the ice for just 1.31 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Averaging 1:35 of power-play time during the stretch doesn’t move the needle, either.

Finally, I also value Mikael Backlund odds because just 38.1% of his 5-on-5 zone starts are in the opponent’s end.

Mikael Backlund prop: Under 0.5 points (-120 at Bet99)