The Carolina Hurricanes and the Florida Panthers meet in the Eastern Conference Final for the second time in three years.
Carolina has home-ice advantage in the series, but the Panthers enter as the clear favorites as the defending Cup champions.
The Cats defeated the Canes two seasons ago, and my NHL picks believe they’ll repeat as East champs for a third straight season.
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Panthers vs Hurricanes series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 -125 |
To win |  +105 |
| -1.5 (+145) |
Handicap | +1.5 (-190) |
| Over 5.5 (-200) | Total games | Under 5.5 (+150) |
The bookmakers expect a back-and-forth series between the Canes and Panthers here, with the Over at 5.5 games heavily favored at -200 and Carolina +1.5 on the spread priced at -190.
Panthers vs Hurricanes series preview
Panthers vs Hurricanes statistical breakdown
The Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers met three times this season, with Florida winning two of the three games, outscoring Carolina 13-6.
Will that success carry over into this series?
Both the Panthers and Hurricanes play a suffocating, heavy, defensive style of play where neither side gives their opponent much space to create offense.
The Carolina Hurricanes steamrolled through the Metro division, beating both the Devils and Caps in five games each. They controlled play for the majority of their games with a +16 goal-differential, while winning 53% of their minutes at 5-on-5, which ranks fourth in the NHL.
Unfortunately, the Panthers have the third-best expected-goal rate through two rounds, winning 56% of their 5-on-5 minutes, scoring a league-leading 45 goals, and the lowest expected-goal rate remaining in the NHL playoffs.
However, the Canes' goaltending has been stellar throughout the postseason, allowing just 1.80 goals against per game. They’ll need that to continue against a sharp-shooting, opportunistic Panthers squad.
Overall, I expect this matchup to be a rather low-scoring, low-event series with some enticing Unders.
Panthers vs Hurricanes series props
Panthers vs Hurricanes correct score odds
| Team | Win 4-0 | Win 4-1 | Win 4-2 | Win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers |
+1000 | +600 | +400 | +500 |
| Hurricanes |
+1400 | +650 | +600 | +475 |
Pick: Panthers win 4-2 (+400 at Sports Interaction)
The Panthers won the regular season battle between these two teams, winning two out of three games, outscoring the Hurricanes 13-6 in those contests. My expert analysis projects them to replicate that success and win this series in six games.
It’s the second time in three years that Florida and Carolina battle for Eastern Conference supremacy. The Panthers swept the Canes two years ago, but it may have been the most evenly played sweep of all time — just ask Rod Brind’Amour.
“That’s the unfortunate part of this,” he said after losing 4-0 to the Panthers. “ We’re going to look back and everyone’s going to say you got swept, and that’s not what happened.”
Except it did happen, factually.
Although I understand where Brind’Amour was coming from, as the Hurricanes controlled play for a majority of the series, winning most of the key underlying possession metrics. Unfortunately, a good goalie can be the ultimate equalizer, and that’s exactly what Sergei Bobrovsky was in that series, posting a .966 sv%, allowing just six goals in four games.
Fast-forward two years later and we’re here once again with Bobrovsky picking up steam through the second round of the playoffs. Except this time, the offense is cooking too.
In the final four games of the second round, Bobrovsky posted a 3-1 record with a 1.01 GAA and a .957 SV%. This has been supported by the Panthers' NHL-best 45 goals and the lowest expected goals-per-60 at 5-on-5 (1.99/60) through the first two rounds.
This doesn't bode well for a Carolina team that ranks middle-of-the-pack defensively to this point, allowing 2.64 expected goals per 60 minutes, and has only scored four high-danger goals all playoffs.
Furthermore, I don't expect Freddy Andersen to keep pace with his 1.36 GAA and .937 sv% against a quality team like the Florida Panthers, who have scored 19 high-danger goals so far this postseason.
Florida possesses a much stiffer competition than New Jersey or Washington did for Carolina, and it may take the Canes a couple of games to adjust to the relentless Panther forecheck.
However, I do expect the Canes to win a couple of games this season. They’re undefeated with a 5-0 record at home, outscoring their opponents 21-8 in those outings. I expect them to win a couple on home ice to keep it a respectable series that won’t read as a sweep.
Panthers vs Hurricanes total game odds
Pick: Over 5.5 games (-200 at Sports Interaction)
I’m going chalk on this pick and taking the series to go Over 5.5 games. It’s tough to beat a team four times in five games.
I anticipate a close series where one or two mistakes can dictate the game, and the bounces tend to swing one way and then the other as a series progresses to prolong the best-of-seven
Therefore, Carolina should be able to secure an extra win or two if this series is as tight as expected.
Panthers vs Hurricanes top goalscorer
Pick: Andrei Svechnikov top goalscorer (+750 at Sports Interaction)
Florida spreads the wealth and receives contributions from all over the lineup. Thus, I’m eyeing a Hurricanes' goal-scorer to lead the series.
Andrei Svechnikov has had a nice renaissance season for Carolina in these playoffs. He leads the team with eight goals in 10 games, while also leading the playoffs 1st in shots per 60 minutes among all remaining players.
Not only has he had a quantity of shots, but he’s also generating quality looks as well. The Canes sniper also leads the team in scoring chances and high-danger chances per 60 minutes of play.
He’s the go-to shooter for the Canes right now, and I don't see why they would veer away from that success, especially considering Bobrovsky’s one hindrance this postseason is his high-danger save percentage (.800 HDsv%).
Panthers vs Hurricanes series best bet
Pick: Seth Jarvis series points leader (+700 at Sports Interaction)
I know it’s strange to think the Panthers are going to win the series, while also believing that Carolina will have the leading offensive producers.
This one, again, comes down to depth. The Panthers have just one player, Sam Bennett, with more than four goals in the postseason. However, they have nine players with at least three goals. Additionally, three of their top four point-getters are on the team’s de facto third line.
Simply put, they spread the wealth.
Meanwhile, the Canes are more star-driven when it comes to generating their success. Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, and Svechnikov are their best offensive players, and they all rank in the top three in Canes scoring.
