The Florida Panthers got No. 1 center Aleksander Barkov back in the fold on Wednesday following a three-game absence, and the Cats visit the Pittsburgh Penguins with a healthy lineup Friday.
Pittsburgh is a short home underdog in the NHL odds, and the Penguins need to start stringing together wins to have a chance at punching a postseason ticket. The Pens are seven points out of a wild-card spot, and they'll also need to leapfrog three teams in the process.
Here are our free NHL picks and top NHL player props for Panthers vs. Penguins on January 26.
Panthers vs Penguins odds
Panthers vs Penguins predictions
The Florida Panthers are the No. 1 defense in my ratings, and the Cats allow the third-fewest goals (2.02) and second-fewest expected goals (2.27) per 60 minutes while driving possession with the second-highest Corsi For Percentage (57.0) at five-on-five. Add a respectable 82.4 penalty-kill percentage that ranks 10th in the league, and goals are going to be difficult to come by for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Florida starter Sergei Bobrovsky has also been better on the highway with a .916 SV% and 2.25 GAA compared to .904 and 2.76 marks at home. The Panthers are also riding a 5-0 road record out of the holiday break.
Pittsburgh is mired in a 1-2-2 stretch, and the Pens have put their lines in the blender ahead of Friday’s tough matchup. The Penguins have underachieved considering they rank third in xGF per 60 (2.91) and seventh in xGF% (52.7%) at 5-on-5. Still, I’m not expecting statistical correction to swing too far in their direction against the Panthers on Friday.
Florida has a deeper and more well-rounded lineup, and the Cats have a relentless attack that makes them incredibly difficult to generate quality-scoring chances against.
My best bet: Panthers moneyline (-125 at BetRivers)
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Panthers vs Penguins same-game parlay
Panthers moneyline
Under 6.5
Rickard Rackell Under 0.5 points
I’m adding the Under 6.5 leg to this SGP because the Penguins are also a sound defensive club and rank 10th in my ratings. Pittsburgh has surrendered the seventh-fewest 5-on-5 goals (2.33) per 60 and sports a seventh-ranked 82.8 penalty-kill percentage.
Additionally, Penguins starter Alex Nedeljkovic has played well when called upon this season with a .916 SV% and 2.66 GAA. He’s also in a bounce-back spot after allowing three goals on nine shots to Vancouver and being pulled following the first period.
The final leg is one of my top NHL player prop picks for Friday. Pittsburgh has relegated Rickard Rakell to the third line, and he’s spent the bulk of the season flanking Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, so it’s a huge downgrade to skating with Lars Eller and Valtteri Puustinen.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Panthers vs Penguins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
There’s been consistent line movement to the Florida side, with bet365 moving the Panthers from -125 to -140. There’s also been similar shifts at Pinnacle, FanDuel, and DraftKings. It makes the -125 available through BetRivers all the more attractive.
For comparison, the difference in -125 and -140 is a positive expected value of 5%.
Meanwhile. the total has also seen several adjustments. FanDuel has a 6.5 available with the higher vig attached to the Under. Other sportsbooks have tested 6.5, too, but it’s never lasted long. Bet365 actually opened with a 6.5 total with the Over priced at +105, but the number has moved to 6.0 with the Over listed at -115 as of Friday afternoon.
Panthers vs Penguins betting trend to know
Pittsburgh has only won one of its past five games, and the Under has hit in five of the past seven games at PPG Paints Arena. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Penguins.
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Panthers vs Penguins game info
| Location: | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Friday, January 26, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Florida, SportsNet-Pittsburgh |
Panthers vs Penguins latest injuries
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