The Edmonton Oilers find themselves traveling to Winnipeg down 2-0 in their best-of-seven series against the Jets. Winnipeg has cast doubt on the league’s best scorers, as Edmonton has managed just a single goal through two games with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl pointless heading into Game 3.
Winnipeg goalie Connor Hellebuyck picked up the OT shutout on Friday and has stopped 70 of 71 Edmonton shots. Losing Game 3 is basically a wrap on the Oilers’ season.
Oddsmakers have the Oilers as a -169 NHL betting favorite with the total opening at 5.5 and trending downwards.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Oilers vs. Jets for Sunday, May 23 (7:30 p.m. ET).
Oilers vs Jets game info
• Location: Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg, MB
• Date: Sunday, May 23, 2021
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Network, CBC
Oilers vs Jets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonWinnipeg opened a modest -112 home chalk at TwinSpires, but the moneyline has since flipped all the way to Edmonton -136. As of 4:30 p.m. ET, ticket count is 4/1 and money beyond 3/1 on the Oilers. The total is stable at 5.5, with 60 percent of tickets/67 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameOilers vs Jets series odds
Oilers: +320
Jets: -400
Oilers vs Jets betting preview
Injuries
Oilers: Kris Russel D (Doubtful).
Jets: Nikolaj Ehlers F (Questionable), Bryan Little F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Oilers are 0-4 SU in their last four playoff games as a favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Jets.
Moneyline pick
For the second straight game, the Oilers won the metrics but lost the game. More concerning is that the seventh-highest scoring team can’t get on the board. Connor McDavid finished with five shots in 26 minutes but for the second game in a row was held pointless. The Oilers don’t offer much in secondary scoring, so if McDavid can’t get it done, the Oilers are more than likely going down as well.
Connor Hellebuyck has been the difference through two games and has taken away some goals from the Oilers. The Jets’ goalie has 5.5 goals saved above expected, which is 2.6 more than second-place Marc-Andre Fleury, who has played one more game. Helly has a .986 save percentage against the 2021 Art Ross winner and likely league MVP. The Jets have done an amazing job in casting doubt into the Edmonton offense.
For a team that had the league’s Top-2 leading scorers in McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, it has picked a bad time to run cold. After getting just a single power play in Game 1, the Oilers failed to take advantage of three separate man advantages which included a 5-on-3 in the third period of Game 2. These two are not used to being held pointless in consecutive games and one has to think how much of a mental game this is playing on Edmonton's two stars.
The Jets also got back the services of forward Pierre-Luc Dubois, who missed the opening match. He slotted into the second line, which finished with a 54.5 Fenwick percent after it posted a 33 Fenwick percent in Game 1. Dubois makes this team bigger and stronger, and his addition improves the top-six substantially.
It’s hard to back an Edmonton team that has no prior experience in playoff perseverance. They lost 3-1 to Chicago in the Qualifying Round last year as a No. 5 seed and hadn’t seen the postseason since 2017 prior to that.
There isn’t much home ice advantage for the Jets, with no fans in the stands, but keeping a low-intensity game seems to be their M/O as it has worked in back-to-back games. Edmonton either finds a way to win this game or its season is likely done.
If the Oilers had shown any offensive flashes, we’d be more willing to back them, but with Hellebuyck and the Jets casting doubt, we’re going to pass and hit the home side at even money.
PREDICTION: Jets (+100)
Over/Under pick
Edmonton goalie Mike Smith was the tough-luck loser on Friday, even though he’d probably like to have Paul Stastny’s game-winner back. Smith has stopped 53 of 56 shots through the series’ first two games and has had a total of one goal of offensive support. The Jets have managed over 10 shots in just one of the six periods, but Smith has been solid even with a lighter workload.
McDavid was held pointless across two games just once this season, while Draisaitl was blanked in back-to-back games three times. In the regular season they would get to face a different team and goalie, but in the playoffs, the two still need to face the reigning Vezina winner, who has played nearly perfectly since the puck dropped in Game 1.
Shutting down McDavid comes at a cost, though, as the Jets are using a lot of energy to shut down Edmonton’s best. Jets coach Paul Maurice told reporters following his 1-0 win, that his team is not generating a tremendous amount of offense because of its attention to detail and it looks like the Jets have bought into the system.
It’s hard to imagine either offense just exploding on Sunday, as both goalies have been stellar, and Winnipeg’s main objective is to keep it tight. The Under is 2-0 to start this series and we’re liking it to go 3-0 on Sunday night.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-120)
Oilers vs Jets betting card
- Jets (+100)
- Under 5.5 (-120)
Picks made on 5/22/2021 at 10:05 a.m. ET
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