Brandon Carlo is one of the best shot blockers in the NHL, ranking 29th among all defensemen in shot blocks per 60 minutes.
My Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions expect Carlo to put his body on the line early and often against a team sitting 6th in attempts over their past 10.
Let’s take a closer look at my NHL picks for Saturday, March 21.
Maple Leafs vs Senators prediction
Maple Leafs vs Senators best bet: Brandon Carlo Over 1.5 blocked shots (-130)
Brandon Carlo has generated blocked shots very efficiently on the road. He’s blocked at least two pucks in 14 of his last 19 away games (74%), averaging 2.3 blocks during that span.
The Unders came against Philadelphia, Vancouver, Seattle, Florida, and Utah – mostly slower pace, lower volume offenses.
The Ottawa Senators rank just outside the Top-10 in shot attempts generated this season and 6th over their last 10 games. There will be plenty of block opportunities for a minute-muncher like Carlo.
Maple Leafs vs Senators same-game parlay
Tim Stutzle has been very productive against Bottom-10 shot suppression teams, averaging 3.6 shots on goal and clearing 2.5 shots in 76% of his games following a day of rest. With every point crucial, the Senators will rely heavily on their star center.
Toronto Maple Leafs games have featured an average of 5.51 goals without Auston Matthews in the lineup. Meanwhile, we’ve seen an average of 5.2 goals over the past 10 Senators games. There isn’t much recipe for fireworks here.
Maple Leafs vs Senators SGP
- Brandon Carlo Over 1.5 blocked shots
- Tim Stutzle Over 2.5 shots
- Under 6.5
Maple Leafs vs Senators odds
- Moneyline: Maple Leafs +210 | Senators -260
- Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-115) | Senators -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+120) | Under 6.5 (-140)
Maple Leafs vs Senators trend
The Ottawa Senators have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Senators.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Senators
| Location | Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON |
| Date | Saturday, March 21, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBC, SNO |
Maple Leafs vs Senators latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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