Maple Leafs vs Oilers Picks: Edmonton Remains Hot in February

Feb 26, 2021 |
Maple Leafs vs Oilers Picks: Edmonton Remains Hot in February
The Oilers are one of the hottest teams in the league and led by superstar Connor McDavid, they are scoring more goals per game (4.08) than any other team in the NHL in February.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The Oilers are one of the hottest teams in the league and led by superstar Connor McDavid, they are scoring more goals per game (4.08) than any other team in the NHL in February.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The two top teams in the North Division will do battle on Saturday night as the Toronto Maple Leafs will begin a five-game road trip against the Edmonton Oilers, who are winners of five straight.

Saturday’s primetime matchup will showcase two of the league’s hottest players in Toronto’s Auston Matthews and Edmonton’s Connor McDavid. Combined, the two former first overall picks have amassed 39 points this month.

Oddsmakers have this as a coinflip with the Oilers ML sitting at -110. The total opened at 6.5.

Here are our free picks and predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton Oilers for Saturday, February 27 at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers betting preview

Injuries

Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews F (Questionable), Frederik Andersen G (Questionable), Joe Thornton F (Questionable), Wayne Simmonds F (Out), Jack Campbell G (Out), Jake Muzzin D (Questionable), Rasmus Sandin D (Out).
Oilers: James Neal F (Questionable), Zack Kassian F (Out), Oscar Klefbom D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 7-1 in the Leafs’ last eight games against a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Oilers.

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NHL sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

FanDuel opened Toronto a -116 favorite and moved the Maple Leafs out to -130 early this morning, but as of 4:15 p.m. ET, Toronto is slim -110 chalk to Edmonton's -106. The Maple Leafs are taking 55 percent of moneyline tickets, but 67 percent of moneyline cash is on the Oilers. The total opened at 6.5 (Over -135) and remains 6.5, but the price on the Over is down to -122, with 58 percent of bets/63 percent of money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Moneyline pick

The Oilers are one of the league’s hottest teams and have gone 11-2 SU since January 30. Edmonton has been getting it done on both ends of the ice as of late and has turned around a season that started 3-6 SU.

No team is scoring more goals per game than Edmonton this month at 4.08. Although the competition might be a little more generous than other divisions, scoring on 32 percent of their power-plays and outscoring their opponent 32-22 at even strength is a recipe for success.

Speaking of success, Edmonton’s opponents have struggled to find any of late. The usually defensive-absent Oilers have surrendered just 2.46 goals against per game this month. The sudden surge in stinginess has a lot to do with the return of goalie Mike Smith, who is 6-1 SU since his return on Feb. 8 and is coming off a 32-save shutout against the Canucks on Thursday. 

The Leafs have not had the services of their No. 1 netminder in Frederik Andersen for the last two games, with backup Michael Hutchinson filling in. Hutchinson has been more than steady between the pipes stopping 51-of-55 shots, but is coming off a .888 save percentage season last year, and it's only a matter of time before the goalie gets shelled. Andersen’s status for Saturday is still up in the air. 

There's a strong chance that backup Jack Campbell gets the start on Saturday. The goalie declared himself ready to go after practice Friday, but the Leafs’ No. 2 hasn't played since January 24 after a lower-body injury sidelined him for four weeks. 

Toronto is coming off a two-game set against the Flames that saw them score only one goal in 120 minutes of regulation play, despite 8.2 expected goals for. The Leafs are getting chances but are struggling to finish. Head coach Sheldon Keefe said center Auston Matthews is playing through a wrist injury and he is questionable for Saturday’s match.

The season series is split 2-2 and has been played quite evenly with both clubs scoring 12 goals apiece. 

The biggest difference in this game is the uncertainty of Andersen. With Campbell likely having to face a team that's playing its best hockey, we’re getting on a sizzling Oilers side at a great price.  

PREDICTION: Edmonton ML (-110)

Over/Under pick

The season series has gone 2-2 O/U with an average of six total goals per match. That number is slightly higher than the average expected goal total of 5.4. Even with each team sitting in the Top-4 in goals per game, the Under is 12-6 across both teams’ last nine.

The Leafs have one of the league’s best offenses but that hasn’t equaled success in the Over as Toronto is currently 3-6 O/U in its last nine. In the two games that backup Hutchinson has started, the Leafs have put more emphasis on protecting the net and are averaging 6.5 high-danger scoring chances against, compared to their season mark of 11.1. The Leafs have scored eight goals in the four games that Andersen has not started.

The Oilers are also riding a 3-6 O/U streak across their last nine. Goalie Mike Smith has allowed two or fewer goals in five of his seven starts this year and is 2-5 O/U on the season. 

Matthews will be a game-time decision and if he were to sit out, it would be a huge blow to the Leafs’ offense. The league’s leading goalscorer has 18 of the team’s 74 goals this season and has collected a point on 42 percent of Toronto's goals. The Buds could also be without Joe Thornton, who has seven points in his last four games. 

This Over 6.5 should be a very public bet total, with both teams sitting in the Top-4 in total offense, but trends, injuries and recent performances have us hitting the Under button instead.

PREDICTION: Under 6.5 (+110)

Maple Leafs vs Oilers betting card

  • Edmonton ML (-110)
  • Under 6.5 (+110)
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