In a rematch of last year’s Stanley Cup Finals, the slumping Dallas Stars head to Tampa Bay to take on a Lightning team that has ripped off three straight wins and is 8-1 SU at home this year.
The short-handed Stars have collected just two wins over their last 11 games and have begun one of the toughest schedules in the league thanks to an early-season shutdown.
Oddsmakers have the defending champs as heavy -192 favorites with the total opening at 5.5 and shaded to the Under.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning for Saturday, February 27 (7:00 PM EST).
Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning betting preview
Injuries
Stars: Roope Hintz F (questionable), Alexander Radulov F (out), Tyler Seguin F (out), Ben Bishop G (out), Stephen Johns D (out).
Lightning: Erik Cernak D (out), Nikita Kucherov F (out), Anders Nilsson G (out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Stars are 1-7 SU over their last eight games. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Lightning.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTampa Bay hit the FanDuel odds board as -178 chalk and by lunch hour stretched out to -200, where the moneyline rests at 4:30 p.m. ET. Ticket count and money are both beyond 9/1 in favor of the Lightning. The total opened at 5.5 flat (-110 on Over/Under), and the price has since adjusted to Under -130, with 67 percent of tickets on the Over, but 59 percent of cash on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been near perfect at home this year, collecting 16 of a possible 18 points on home ice and outscoring their opponents 37-17 in the process. They’re coming off a two-game home set against the Hurricanes where they gave up just one goal on 57 shots and killed off all eight penalties.
All this is bad news for a Dallas team that has struggled to score of late. The Stars are averaging just two goals per game over the last three weeks and have just one win since February 4 — a stretch of eight games.
Due to a late start to the season thanks to COVID, the Stars are in the middle of playing 43 games in 76 days. This grueling schedule would be difficult even on the deepest of teams, but without Tyler Seguin, Alex Radulov and possibly Roope Hintz — three of the team’s top-five scorers from a year ago — this is a near-impossible situation for Dallas to succeed in.
The Lightning will likely go with starter and 2020 Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy. All the Russian goalie has done this year is post the third-best save percentage (.935) with a 1.87 GAA. He is 11-4 SU and has been even better at home going 7-0 SU with a .946 SV% and a 1.43 GAA. Vasilevskiy is the front-runner to win the league’s top goaltending award again.
Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin’s numbers look great (2.35 GAA and a .928 SV%) but the offense just isn’t giving him enough support when he does hold down the fort. He has won just four of his nine starts this year but has also played poorly in his losses, allowing 3.4 per game.
There is a reason the books have the Lightning as the favorite to win the Stanley Cup at +650. They can beat you 7-4 or 2-0 and have won 10 of their last 13 games — all in regulation. Tampa also owns a Top-10 power-play unit which is bad news for Dallas, who spends more time short-handed than any other team in the league.
PREDICTION: Tampa Bay 3-way ML (-135)
Over/Under pick
The Lightning were on a four-game Over streak before cooling off and going 0-3-1 O/U in four games versus the Hurricanes. Dallas is also riding a three-game Under streak that has seen them score just six times.
The Stars have been too reliant on their power play this year, having scored 17 of the team’s 46 goals with the man advantage — good for a 37 percent share. To put that in perspective against its opponent, the Bolts own the league’s 10th-best PP and score 22 percent of their goals with the extra attacker. If Tampa can shut down the Dallas power play, the Stars could continue to struggle to score at 5x5.
On the season, the Lightning are killing penalties at the fifth-best rate in the league and have allowed just one goal over their last 15 short-handed stints. The Dallas PK unit has also looked sharp over the last two weeks, killing off all seven of its penalties since Valentine’s Day.
Both teams will likely be starting goalies who are coming off a pair of separate shutouts, as Saturday’s matchup will feature two netminders who sit in the Top 10 in save percentage and goals saved above average.
In last year’s Cup Finals, the Under 5.5 hit in four of the six games and that’s where we’re putting our money on Saturday. Getting to the first break without two or more goals on the board is always important on the Under 5.5, and both teams have accomplished that in seven of their last eight combined games.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-116)
Stars vs Lightning betting card
- Tampa Bay 3-way ML (-135)
- Under 5.5 (-116)
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