The Tampa Bay Lightning still have plenty to play for heading into the final game of their two-game set versus the eliminated Detroit Red Wings, who stole a 1-0 shootout victory on Saturday.
The defending champs are two points out of first place with five games left in the regular season. A first place finish would set up a round one date with either the Predators or Stars — two teams that have struggled with consistency this season.
Oddsmakers have the visiting Lightning as heavy -355 favorites in NHL betting, with the total opening at 5.5.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings for Sunday, May 2 (3:00 p.m. ET).
Lightning vs Red Wings odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonTampa Bay opened a massive -315 chalk Friday afternoon and stretched out a bunch more from there, hitting -375 late on game-day morning, then dipping to -345 as of 1 p.m. ET. Even at the monster price, the Lightning are attracting 84 percent of bets and 91 percent of cash on the moneyline. The total of 5.5 saw a significant price adjustment, from -110 flat to Under -141 on some intriguing betting splits: the Over is getting just 54 percent of bets, but 92 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameLightning at Red Wings betting preview
Injuries
Lightning: Steve Stamkos F (Out), Nikita Kucherov F (Out).
Red Wings: Tyler Bertuzzi F (Out), Robby Fabbri F (Out), Dylan Larkin F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Red Wings are 4-1 ATS over their last five home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Red Wings.
Puck line pick
Tampa Bay still needs points with the season ending, as the winner of the Central Division will get a much easier first round matchup against the Stars or Predators. Tampa trailed the Hurricanes by two points following its 1-0 shootout loss to the Wings on Saturday afternoon. However, blowing the Wings out may not be as easy as the -335 odds indicate.
With Tampa backup Curtis McElhinney getting the start yesterday, reigning Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy should get the nod for Sunday’s matinee. Vas is coming off a 20-save shutout against Dallas on Thursday and is the odds-on favorite to win the league’s best goalie award again.
Detroit has taken three games versus the Bolts this year as +284, +255 and +233 underdogs but none of those games were against Vasilevskiy. It’s tough to bet against a goalie who is 30-8-1 on the season but with a price of +100 for +1.5, we might have to go value fishing, especially with Tampa’s inability to score against Detroit.
With zero value on the Tampa ML at -335 and a puck line that is worth -125, getting the Wings to lose by one or less at even money might be the best play on Sunday’s single-game slate.
Tampa has been a beast at home this season but has dropped five of its last seven games on the road. Saturday’s 1-0 shootout loss doesn't fill us with confidence, and whether it’s recency bias or not, we don’t like the price of the -1.5 line.
Jonathan Bernier should get the call in net for the Wings. Bernier is a solid 6-6 SU at home this year with a save percentage of .929, which is a Top-15 mark. We’re banking on the Wings to keep it close on Sunday.
PREDICTION: Detroit +1.5 (+100)
Over/Under pick
The Red Wings have been one of the more profitable Under teams this season, with a mark of 18-31 O/U. Detroit is scoring at the league’s second-lowest rate (2.21 goals per game) and at 2.33 goals per match over the last month, its form isn’t much better.
Defensively, they have held their own and possess an average expected goals against/60 that's better than the Golden Knights, Maple Leafs and Oilers. In short, the Wings struggle to score and are undervalued as a decent defensive team.
Detroit managed just 15 shots against McElhinney Saturday, with nine of those coming in the game’s final 40 minutes. With Vas likely tending the crease on Sunday, expecting more than one goal from Detroit is a stretch. The Red Wings will also enter Sunday’s match without three of their top offensive players in Dylan Larkin, Robby Fabbri and Tyler Bertuzzi.
Tampa didn’t show much offensively on Saturday, with zero goals in 65 minutes and an 0-for-5 power play showing against a bottom-10 penalty kill. They've also scored just three goals across the last three meetings versus the Wings.
We’re suckers for Sunday Unders and May’s first weekend is no exception. It’s an Under 5.5 for us.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-120)
Lightning vs Red Wings betting card
- Detroit +1.5 (+100)
- Under 5.5 (-120)
Picks made on 5/1/2021 at 8:25 p.m. ET
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