Lightning vs Islanders Game 6 Picks and Predictions: Run It Back

After hammering the Islanders 8-0 in Game 5, the Lightning can eliminate New York and head back to the Stanley Cup Finals with a win in Game 6. Can the Isles hold off Tampa? Find out in our picks and predictions.

Posted: Jun 22, 2021 8:25 PM ET Updated: Jun 22, 2021 8:25 PM ET Est Time: 4 min
Andrei Vasilevskiy Tampa Bay Lightning NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Islanders got humiliated on Monday as they got spanked 8-0 in Game 5 and now face elimination against the Tampa Bay Lightning in what they hope isn’t the last game at Nassau Coliseum.

New York has dropped three of four games and now stares down a 3-2 series deficit. Barry Trotz’s team has yet to face elimination in the 2021 playoffs and taking two straight games against a Tampa team that just handed New York its worst defeat of the year is a tough task.

Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Lightning vs Islanders for June 23 at 8:00 p.m. ET.

Lightning vs Islanders game info

Location: Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY
Date: Wednesday, June 23, 2021
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Lightning vs Islanders odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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NHL sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Tampa Bay hit TwinSpires’ odds board as -152 chalk, initially dipped to -139 and is -150 as of 5 p.m. ET. It’s two-way moneyline action, with the Lightning taking 55 percent of bets and 58 percent of money. The total opened at 5 (Over -127) and saw a price adjustment to Over -141, with 76 percent of bets and 72 percent of cash on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Lightning vs Islanders series odds

Lightning: -667
Islanders: +475

Lightning vs Islanders betting preview


Lightning: Erik Cernak D (Questionable).
Islanders: Anders Lee F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 7-0-1 in Lightning’s last eight games following a win. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Islanders.

Moneyline pick

The Islanders opened as +135 home dogs, which marks the highest odds they have faced at home in this series. The books are giving us a discount on New York Wednesday night, but is it worth taking a dip?

The Lightning are 2-1 SU in elimination games this postseason with goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy posting back-to-back shutouts in those most recent matches. Including last year, the Tampa goalie is 6-3 SU in elimination games with a total of three shutouts. 

We’ve been backing the Islanders all series but after five games and just eight goals to show for it, New York is going to need a near-perfect game from their goalie. With Semyon Varlamov coming off a dud, it’s tough to take the dive. 

After Monday’s loss, the Islanders’ netminder is 6-6 SU in the playoffs with a sub-standard 2.74 GAA to go along with a .919 save percentage. 

New York struggled to shut down the top line in Boston and is having an equal amount of trouble bottling up the Point-Kucherov-Palat line in Round 3. Through five games in the series, the top line in Tampa has totaled 18 total points with 10 of those coming at even strength. Brayden Point has been on fire having tallied a goal in eight straight games, which is two shy of the NHL record. 

The Islanders staved off elimination once in last year’s Conference Finals against the Bolts, but this Tampa roster is too solid at nearly every position. At -150 on the ML, it might be worth a double-unit wager.

PREDICTION: Tampa Bay ML (-150)

Over/Under pick

Getting dummied 8-0 can do a lot of things to a lot of different teams, but with the Islanders having one of the best bench bosses in the league, we’d expect New York to come out composed and play a tight game on Wednesday.

Outside of Monday’s final, the series had produced a 1-2-1 O/U mark with the only Over coming in a game that saw a total of 20 power plays. We doubt things get as chippy in an elimination game and the way the refs have called some of these postseason games, there may be either 1,000 penalties or zero... we’re leaning on the latter, though, after a colorful Game 5.

New York has had plenty of chances to score this series, including winning the xgoal battle in three of the series’ five games, but Vasilevskiy has been the difference. Through five games, the likely 2021 Vezina winner is sporting a 1.62 GAA with a .941 save percentage. Vaz has been so good that his save percentage is actually higher while shorthanded, as he has made 19 of 20 saves while on the penalty kill. Some books have Vasilevskiy as high as +500 to win the Conn Smythe, which is looking like a great deal heading into Wednesday’s Game 6.

Having won the Cup just a season ago, the Lightning are no strangers to elimination games and have a pretty good Under track record to show for it. Through Tampa’s last nine elimination games dating back to 2020, the Under is 8-1 and a perfect 8-0 in Tampa’s last eight possible series-clinching games. In the two elimination games the Lightning and Islanders played last year, a total of three goals were scored in each game with overtime being needed in both matches.

Flat 5’s have become the norm lately and we have had to change our tune on taking the Under 5. Wednesday will be another example of us making an exception. 

PREDICTION: Under 5 (+110)

Lightning vs Islanders betting card

  • Tampa Bay ML (-150)
  • Under 5 (+110)

Picks made on 6/22/2021 at 5:00 p.m. ET

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