To kick off Sunday’s NHL slate, there is an Eastern Conference tilt with the Metropolitan Division’s Carolina Hurricanes hosting the Atlantic Division’s Tampa Bay Lightning. In the lone meeting between these two clubs earlier this season, Carolina secured a 4-3 shootout victory in Tampa.
Will the Hurricanes take care of business once again, or can the Lightning avenge their loss from November? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs Hurricanes on Sunday, March 5.
Lightning vs Hurricanes best odds
Lightning vs Hurricanes picks and predictions
Entering this contest in terrible form, the Tampa Bay Lightning have lost four straight games and seven of their last nine. Frustrated with the play from his superstars, coach Jon Cooper benched Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, and Nikita Kucherov in the third period of Saturday’s loss to the Buffalo Sabres.
This action fully encapsulates how tumultuous the last couple of weeks have been for the Bolts. While such a decision from the bench manager typically provides a spark to a team, travelling to a difficult environment on the second half of a road back-to-back against the second-best team in the league is likely not the situation where things turn around.
The Carolina Hurricanes enter this contest in good form, winning six of their last eight games. On the surface, Carolina is the better club, and the underlying metrics also agree.
The Canes rank second in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5, and first in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Meanwhile, the Bolts rank seventh in the league in xGF/60, and 21st in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
Goaltender Antti Raanta is projected to start between the pipes for Carolina in this contest. Entering this game in incredible form, Raanta is 6-0 with a .952 SV% and a 1.23 GAA over his last six starts.
This stellar play is likely to continue against Tampa, a team he typically dominates. Through eight career starts against the Bolts, Raanta is 5-2-1 with a .931 SV% and a 2.11 GAA.
With that said, the biggest mismatch in this contest is depth, with the Canes boasting arguably the deepest lineup in the league. While Tampa is more top-heavy with their talent, the lack of depth has limited this club over the past few weeks.
The Bolts are 0-5 in their last five games played on no rest, and going against the mighty Hurricanes on the road is likely not the time that trend breaks.
My best bet: Hurricanes moneyline (-152 at BetRivers)
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Lightning vs Hurricanes moneyline analysis
The biggest concern in backing Carolina is future first-ballot Hall of Fame goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is slated to start between the pipes for Tampa. While Vasilevskiy is still one of the world’s best goaltenders, it has not been the smoothest sailing over the past month.
Not only is Vasilevskiy coming off a loss against the Pittsburgh Penguins, a game in which he surrendered five goals, but he has also allowed six goals to the Buffalo Sabres, four to the Vegas Golden Knights, and seven to the Florida Panthers. To be fairer to Vasilevskiy, these results are more of an indictment on the Bolts’ thin defensive group rather than his play in net.
Despite the Big Cat getting the nod between the pipes, the Lightning are still priced as underdogs at +130, while the Canes return at -150. This line is both an indication of how great Carolina is, and an indictment on the current state of affairs in Tampa.
Lightning vs Hurricanes Over/Under analysis
The Canes are a tough team to handicap totals on, which is due to the fact that are so elite both offensively and defensively. Carolina ranks in the Top 2 in the league in both xGF/60 and xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
On the flip side, the Bolts are not an easy read in terms of the total either. Offensively, Tampa and its Top 6 forward group are nearly impossible to slow down, which is why it ranks in the Top 10 of the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
However, it is thin defensively, which is why it ranks just 21st in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. While Vasilevskiy is more than capable of bailing out the defense, sometimes it gets overwhelming, especially against teams with strong offenses like the Hurricanes.
Lightning vs Hurricanes betting trend to know
The Lightning are 0-5 in their last five games played on no rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs Hurricanes.
Lightning vs Hurricanes game info
| Location: | PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC |
| Date: | Sunday, March 5, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
