The Tampa Bay Lightning wrap up a four-game road trip Tuesday against the Carolina Hurricanes at PNC Arena in Raleigh, N.C., with puck drop scheduled for 7 p.m. ET.
The Lightning are hopeful that the fourth time is a charm, as Tampa Bay has lost all three games on the trip, and four straight overall.
The Hurricanes finish a four-game homestand, and Carolina has had mixed results on home ice during the span. It is 1-1-1, coming off a 4-3 shootout loss against the Boston Bruins last time out.
This is the third and final meeting of the regular season. Carolina played, arguably, its best game of the season in the most recent meeting, topping Tampa Bay 6-0 on March 5.
Will the Lightning be able to salvage a game on the road trip, and in the season series against the Hurricanes, or will Carolina keep them down? We’ll discuss in our NHL betting picks for Lightning vs. Hurricanes on Tuesday, March 28.
Lightning vs Hurricanes best odds
Lightning vs Hurricanes picks and predictions
The Lightning have really struggled lately, dropping four in a row to slip seven points back of the Toronto Maple Leafs for second place in the Atlantic Division. Tampa has just eight games remaining, as it tries to leapfrog Toronto for home-ice advantage in what is likely to be a first-round playoff matchup.
Tampa Bay has managed a dismal 17-19-1 record on the road this season, and it has a minus-22 goal differential, which is unthinkable after recent dominant seasons and championship runs.
Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been mortal this season, especially so in the month of March. He’s just 3-5-2 with a 3.28 GAA and .889 SV% in 10 starts in the current month, allowing three or more goals in seven of his March outings.
Vasilevskiy was rocked for all six goals on 38 shots in the 6-0 setback March 5 in Raleigh, and he suffered a hard-luck shootout loss November 3 at Amalie Arena against the Hurricanes, although he made 52 saves in the setback.
Frederik Andersen is projected to get the nod in between the pipes for the home side. He has been sharp lately, allowing three or fewer goals in 11 of his past 12 starts, going 5-3-1 with a 2.42 GAA and .901 SV% with a shutout in eight starts and nine appearances in March.
The Great Dane has a 2.35 GAA on home ice, as opposed to a 2.62 GAA in away games, and he’s 2-0-0 with a 1.44 GAA, a .925 SV%, and a shutout against the Lightning in two starts.
It’s been a tough go for the Lightning lately, and it isn’t likely to get any easier in Raleigh against a Hurricanes team that has found its footing after being punched in the gut, losing Andrei Svechnikov to a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago.
Side with the home team, as Carolina isn’t priced out of line at most shops.
My best bet: Hurricanes moneyline (-135)
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Lightning vs Hurricanes moneyline analysis
The Lightning have had some uncharacteristic struggles lately, and Tampa Bay is in the midst of a season-high four-game skid in regulation. Prior to this nosedive, the Lightning hadn’t lost more than two straight in regulation.
Tampa Bay is a moderate underdog in Raleigh, and is 4-10-1 in the past 15 games as an underdog, although it is 3-0 in the past three on the puck line as a ‘dog. The last time the Lightning didn’t cover the puck line as an underdog was March 5, the 6-0 whitewashing at the hands of these Hurricanes.
The Lightning have dropped four in a row against the Eastern Conference, while going just 2-8 in the past 10 games against winning teams. Tampa is 2-6 in the past eight games on the road, too.
On the flip side, Carolina has won nine of the past 11 tries against Atlantic Division teams, while going 21-8 in the past 29 games against teams with a winning overall mark. And the Canes are an impressive 55-22 in the past 77 on home ice, or a .714 winning percentage.
The Hurricanes have won four of the past five meetings against the Lightning, while the favorite has hit in five of the past seven meetings overall.
As such, Carolina is the play on home ice as a moderate favorite.
Lightning vs Hurricanes Over/Under analysis
The Lightning have been outscored 17-7 during their current four-game slide, coughing up 4.3 GPG. The Over has cashed in four of the past six games overall, as defense and goaltending have been a problem lately.
The Over is also 6-1-1 in the past eight matchups against Metropolitan Division teams for the Lightning, while cashing at a 7-3-1 clip against both Eastern Conference teams, and winning teams.
Canes fans were concerned about the team’s scoring before the trade deadline, and it didn’t do a lot to quiet that talk, with very few additions. Then they lost Svech, and Caniacs acted like the sky was falling. But Carolina has lit the lamp 24 times in the past seven outings, or 3.4 GPG, while yielding three or more goals in seven of the past nine. Perhaps it was defense and goaltending that was the problem.
The Over is on a 5-2 run, and Carolina figures to score plenty against Vasilevskiy, who has been off his game lately. And if Tampa is ever going to get well offensively, it has the chance against the Canes, who have been giving lately. Play the Over.
Lightning vs Hurricanes betting trend to know
The favorite has cashed in five of the previous seven meetings, while the Lightning have managed just one victory in the past five games in this series. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs Hurricanes.
Lightning vs Hurricanes game info
| Location: | PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 28, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports South |
