Lightning vs Devils Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Overvalued Tampa Outdone in New Jersey

The Tampa Bay Lightning have just three wins over their last 10 games and even those victories came against poor opponents. Now the Bolts have a one-off road game in New Jersey to take on the Devils, who can take over the divisional lead in the Metro tonight.

The visitors have been a .500 team since January 1 and despite ranking 20th in point percentage on the road, enter tonight as slight +115 dogs. Only the Bruins have been a better team than the Devils since the beginning of the calendar year and getting them at home, at -135, is legit vs. an overvalued Tampa Bay team. 

Find out my best NHL bets for the Lightning vs. Devils.

Lightning vs Devils best odds

Lightning vs Devils picks and predictions

Bettors have to go all the way back to Valentine’s Day to find the last playoff team the Tampa Bay Lightning have beaten. Over the last 14 games, the reigning champs have gone 4-10 SU, with those four wins coming against the Ducks, Red Wings, Flyers, and Blackhawks.

Tonight is not a matchup of two teams playing similar hockey. 

Tampa isn’t exactly panicking, thanks to a comfortable spot in the division, but even benchings haven’t motivated this veteran club.

The top line has been doing almost all the heavy lighting for an offense that has no issues scoring at 3.00 goals per game, but giving up goals has been the real problem.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is 3-7 SU over that stretch with a 3.41 GAA. He’s also struggled on the road this year, with an 11-11 record and a 2.83 GAA. The former Vezina winner has played a ton of hockey and it's quite possible he's wearing down.

The visitors could also be without a key piece in middle-six forward Anthony Cirelli, who exited Sunday’s loss to the Jets. He is a key player in shutting down the opposing offense and with a team already struggling to keep pucks out, his loss could hurt vs. a deep Devils squad.

The Devils are coming off an impressive 3-0 win over the Hurricanes at home on Sunday. They’ve taken 15 of a possible 18 points over their last nine games with just two losses vs. the Leafs and a surging Golden Knights team. 

This is a Top-3 team at 5-on-5 in nearly every metric and if it weren’t for the Bruins’ amazing season, we’d be talking about this club a lot more — which might be beneficial to bettors. 

At -133, the books are saying that the Lighting would be the favorite on neutral ice and that’s tough to agree with. It hasn’t been a bad week or two for the Bolts, we’re approaching 15 games of poor results. The Devils have arguably one of the deepest top-nine forward groups in hockey and this is not an easy game for Vasilevksiy to get back on track. 

New Jersey also matches up well vs. the Bolts’ greatest strength in its power play. The Devils have allowed just one power-play goal over their last 10 games and have been more successful with the man advantage than their opponents since 2023.

The Devils have seemingly every advantage today and at -133, New Jersey on the moneyline is my best bet. I have them priced at -160.  

My best bet: Devils moneyline (-133 at Coolbet) 

Lightning vs Devils moneyline analysis

New Jersey opened at -130 but has seen money come in on it, pushing this line to as short as -140 at the time of writing. The Devils just won 3-0 at home to Carolina as -115 home favorites but that was also the second game of a back-to-back. 

If that game was on normal rest, it would have closed around -140 and I don’t have the Lighting on the road at the same price as the Hurricanes.

Tampa has been a .500 road team all season. On the year, it's 15-17 SU, which ranks as the 20th-worst road point percentage. Their 3.44 road GAA ranks in the bottom third of hockey and this is also a team that hasn’t beaten a playoff team since Valentine’s Day — a stretch of 14 games. 

There are very few flaws in the Devils’ game, as they have a Top-10 power play and penalty kill since Christmas, and are the second-best team at even strength behind the Bruins.

Vitek Vanecek is coming off a 32-save shutout vs. Carolina and is 12-6-1 at home this season with a 2.38 GAA. He is likely the weakest link on this team but the Devils don’t allow many chances and dominate possession at 5-on-5. On the year, New Jersey ranks third or better in Goal%, xGoal%, Fenwick%, goal differential, and high-danger shots against at 5-on-5.

The Lightning’s play at even strength accurately portrays a team that sits outside the Top 10 in most categories and one that allows more high-danger shots against than Buffalo or Florida on the season.

The potential loss of Cirelli might also be worth something on the moneyline. With a team struggling to keep goals out and playing without the last change, his role tonight will be important if he can suit up and try and slow down the Jack Hughes line. 

The market is moving in the right direction and I think this could move as short as -150.    

Lightning vs Devils Over/Under analysis

This may be a battle of two teams who rank in the Top 6 in goals per game, but I have no play on this total at 6.5. 

The Lightning have managed to score more than three goals just twice over their last 10 games and have relied heavily on the power play to do so, with their nine power-play goals making up 33% of the team’s total offense.

Now they face a New Jersey penalty kill that has been nearly perfect over the last three weeks, killing 15 of its last 16 penalties. The Devils also take the third-fewest penalties per game. The Lightning might not have many chances to flex their strength tonight.

Vasilevskiy is a real problem playing this total. The New Jersey offense is averaging over 3.00 goals per game since acquiring Timo Meier but also has the fifth-best home GAA since Christmas at 2.64. The Tampa Bay goalie is in the middle of a bad stretch of hockey and is tough to trust with the Under, especially on the road.

Vanecek can be a goalie to target for the Over but at home, where he has better splits and coming off a shutout vs. the Canes, is likely not the best spot. Even with Vasilevskiy playing his worst hockey of the season over the team’s last 14 games, the Over is just 8-6 O/U.

New Jersey, like many good teams, knows how to shut things down late in the game, as only the Bruins have allowed fewer third-period goals than the Devils at 0.76 per frame. 

I have a small lean on the Over thanks to the goalie matchup but would likely need +105 to play it and I doubt we will see that much movement toward the Under.      

Lightning vs Devils betting trend to know

The Lightning are 0-6 in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs Devils.

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