The Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals are set for their first matchup of the season, but this doesn’t have the same feeling that of the past. Both teams are off to pretty average starts to the season, but the Caps are having major injury issues.
The Bolts haven’t been as dominant as we’ve seen over the past couple of years, but with a ton of key players missing from the Washington lineup, it could be a night where Tampa completely takes over.
I'll break that down and much more in my NHL betting picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Capitals on November 11.
Lightning vs Capitals best odds
Lightning vs Capitals picks and predictions
The Capitals have not been the luckiest of teams so far this season. Right now they are missing seven key players from the lineup: Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, Carl Hagelin, Connor Brown, John Carlson, T.J. Oshie, and Dmitry Orlov — who is at least questionable to play tonight.
The Caps are going to crumble at any given moment if they keep having to play this shorthanded. They are coming into this game with a record of 6-7-2 and are sixth in the Metropolitan Division.
The Tampa Bay Lightning haven’t necessarily been playing bad, but they also don’t seem to be at their best early on in the season. They've won four out of their last six so they must be coming into this contest feeling pretty good about themselves — but in reality, they have just been super average.
The good news for the Bolts is they aren’t having as many health issues as they have had in the past, with Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos both healthy and playing great hockey.
Washington's weakest link this season has been its offense, which in years past was never really an issue. With so many guys out of the lineup, it has been a challenge for it to find line chemistry — resulting in just 2.73 goals and 28.5 shots per game.
The Caps have a very tough test tonight going up against Andrei Vasilevskiy who has been the best goalie in the league for about the past five years. Vasy is boasting a +4.8 GSAx with a .910 SV% and a 2.90 GAA.
Tampa Bay shouldn’t have much trouble slowing down the Capitals' forwards tonight and I don’t think Washington will manage to beat Vasilevskiy all that much. This is a great spot for the Bolts and I think they’ll win this game in regulation.
My best bet: Lightning 3-way moneyline (+110 at BetMGM)
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Lightning vs Capitals moneyline analysis
The Washington Capitals enter this game with only one win in their last six games, but it’s hard to put the blame on them because of all the adversity they have faced. They are trying to avoid digging themselves in too big of a hole to get out of if they want to make the playoffs, but it almost feels like this injury problem isn’t even in their control.
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been about as average as it gets, but if we’ve learned anything over the past few NHL seasons it is that they can turn on the jets and get going at any given moment. They have been in the middle of the pack when it comes to offense and defending their opponents, but tonight they have somewhat of an easier matchup than they typically do.
The Bolts are scoring 3.23 goals per game, so finding the back of the net hasn’t been an issue. The same can't be said for the Caps who are putting up 2.73 goals each night with a 46.04% expected goals.
Tampa should be able to dominate the play for most of this game and I think Washington will struggle to put pucks behind Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Lightning vs Capitals Over/Under analysis
With neither of these teams necessarily lighting up the score sheet, I don’t see this game being very high scoring, especially with Darcy Kuemper and Andrei Vasilevskiy minding each goal.
Last season, these two teams met on three different occasions, and the Under hit twice. The standings might not show it right now, but these are two of the most competitive teams in the league and have built up somewhat of a rivalry over the past few years — so this game should have a ton of emotion in it.
Neither team really jumps out at me when it comes to offensive production so I don’t see there being a ton of goals, especially with this goalie matchup. I think this game will stay Under.
Lightning vs Capitals betting trend to know
The favorite is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs Capitals.
Lightning vs Capitals game info
| Location: | Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C. |
| Date: | Friday, November 11, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-WSH |
