Lightning vs Blues Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Saturday Night Fireworks in St. Louis

The Central Division’s St. Louis Blues host the Atlantic Division’s Tampa Bay Lightning in what should be an exciting matchup on Saturday evening. These two teams last squared off on November 25 as Tampa Bay secured a 5-2 victory.

Will we see another high-scoring affair, or can the goaltending step up? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Blues on Saturday, January 14.

Lightning vs Blues best odds

Lightning vs Blues picks and predictions

This game’s total can be found at 6.0 at various shops, primarily due to the fact that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is slated to take the crease for the Lightning. However, there are far too many other variables that suggest this game will feature plenty of goals.

Vasilevskiy has allowed three or more goals in four straight games and over that stretch, he possesses a .886 save percentage (SV%) and 3.27 goals against average (GAA).

There were six or more total goals scored in all four of those games. In fact, there have been six or more total goals scored in seven of Tampa Bay’s last 11 contests.

Part of the reason for these high-scoring games, and Vasilevskiy’s recent underwhelming numbers, is that the Bolts’ blue line has struggled this season. At 5-on-5, the Lightning rank just 19th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

The other reason for these high-scoring contests is Tampa Bay’s dynamite offense. Entering this game, the Bolts rank fourth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.

This offense should feast against St. Louis’ defense. With an aging blue line that is thin in terms of depth, the Blues rank just 26th in the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.

Backing up this defense is goaltender Jordan Binnington, who is slated to start between the pipes for St. Louis. It has been a wildly disappointing year for Binnington, which is both due to his play and the defense in front of him.

Through 32 starts this season, he possesses a troubling .892 SV% and 3.26 GAA. Based on his metrics, positive regression is unlikely for the Blues’ netminder.

Among starting goaltenders, Binnington ranks 23rd in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. With his poor goaltending and St. Louis’ underwhelming defense, high-scoring games have been a trend for the Blues.

There have now been six or more total goals scored in 11 of St. Louis’ last 14 games, a trend that is likely to continue in this contest.

My best bet: Over 6 (-120 at bet365)

Lightning vs Blues moneyline analysis

I would lean towards the Lightning moneyline in this contest, but the juice is not worth the squeeze at -182. Both teams can score at even strength, as they each rank higher in xGF/60 at 5-on-5 than they do at GF/60.

In a game where more goals should be scored, there is too much variance to lay that much juice, especially considering Tampa Bay’s recent defensive form. Additionally, the Blues could really use these two points on home ice and will be looking to avenge their loss to the Bolts earlier this season.

Tampa Bay should win this game, but there is not enough value in laying almost two dollars on the moneyline.

Lightning vs Blues Over/Under analysis

Whenever these two clubs meet, high-scoring contests are typically in store as there have now been six or more total goals scored in each of their last four meetings. Nothing should change this time around, especially considering the high-scoring games these teams have been involved in recently.

St. Louis’ blue line cannot be trusted at all, which is problematic given the inconsistency of Binnington. Add to the fact that the Bolts’ offense has been clicking on all cylinders, and Tampa Bay might score four or five goals themselves.

Meanwhile, Vasilevskiy has now allowed three or more goals in each of his last four starts, which is due to the inconsistent defense in front of him as well. This total can be found at six because of Vasilevskiy’s pedigree, but there are too many other factors that make the Over a good play.

Lightning vs Blues betting trend to know

There have been six or more total goals scored in each of the last four meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs Blues.

Lightning vs Blues game info

Lightning vs Blues key injuries

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