Kraken vs Stars Game 5 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Dallas Defense Gets It Done

The Dallas Stars have yet to lead in their second-round series with the Seattle Kraken, but have a chance to grab the advantage tonight at home as -200 favorites with a total that has finally hit 6.

The Stars have dominated the expected metrics, but Seattle has hung around thanks to a high shooting percentage on a lack of high-quality scoring chances. Jake Oettinger hasn’t played his best game either, and with the move from 5.5 to 6, bettors are getting a great price to fade the overachieving underdogs tonight.

Find out where my best bet lies in our NHL picks and predictions for Kraken vs. Stars Game 5 on Thursday, May 11.

Kraken vs Stars Game 5 odds

Kraken vs Stars series odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of May 11.

Kraken vs Stars Game 5 predictions

The books have finally moved the total to 6 after four straight Overs, but because of that, bettors can get a better price on the Seattle Kraken team total Under 2.5 (-112). 

It might seem confusing why I’m highlighting a team total Under for a club that has scored 17 goals over four games, but there has certainly been a lot of luck involved with the Seattle scoring. 

Of the remaining eight playoff teams, the Kraken have the lowest expected goals/60 (all strengths) at 2.45. Of the 17 total goals they’ve potted, only six have come from high-danger chances, and four of them were on low-danger chances. Dallas is one of the best defensive teams in hockey, ranking third in expected goals against/60 (xGA/60) during the regular season. In the playoffs, they’ve actually improved that xGA/60 metric to 2.64, yet the goals allowed have increased.

A lot of that is on Dallas Stars netminder Jake Oettinger, who hasn’t given his best game yet in the series. He saw just 19 shots in Game 4 but allowed a pair of third-period goals in the 6-3 win. He has a slightly negative goal saved above expected/60 (GSAx/60) so far in the postseason, which is well off his regular season mark, where he ranked as a Top 15 goalie and was looking like a Vezina finalist midway through the season. 

Seattle has been producing offensively with low-probability chances, and not having the last change isn’t helping tonight, either. Bettors are getting a better price on their team total thanks to the move to 6 on the total, and I’m trusting the metrics, which aren’t high on Seattle continuing to find the back of the net.

My best bet: Kraken team total Under 2.5 (-112 at Pinnacle)

Kraken vs Stars Game 5 moneyline analysis

After taking a tough 7-2 loss in Game 3, the Stars took back momentum in the series with a convincing 6-3 road win on Tuesday to even the best-of-seven series at two games apiece. 

The Stars dominated the early parts of the game and built a 4-0 lead 31 minutes into the contest. They did take advantage of some power-play opportunities (2-for-3 with the man advantage) and got No. 1 defenseman Miro Heiskanen back in the lineup, but slightly lost the 5-on-5 metrics with a 44.83 Corsi% and a 42% high-danger chances for percent (HDCF%).

Those metrics shouldn’t worry bettors, though, as Dallas has the best expected goals% (xG%) of all 16 teams that made it to the postseason. In the second round alone, the Stars have the No. 2 xGF and the best xGA (all strengths). The series might be tied, but looking at the numbers, this is the most lopsided series of the second round. The only issue is the Dallas goaltending.

However, Dallas doesn’t need Oettinger to be elite to win games, and if the Dallas goalie can make improvements, a Seattle team that has an unsustainable 14.78% shooting percentage at all strengths in the series will struggle to find offense tonight on the road.

Looking at the price, Dallas has closed at shorter than -200 in both home games in the series (1-1 SU), but also took a lot of late steam. The Stars moneyline opened at -164 in Game 1 and -193 in Game 2, where the Stars closed at -215. 

Pinnacle opened at -193 for Game 5 and has surprisingly moved to -189, while bet365 has moved from -192 to -200. Seattle has scored 17 goals through four games, but that rate is unsustainable and has been built on lower-quality chances and a high shooting percentage. If the results mirror the expected metrics for once in this series, Dallas should be looking at a win after 60 minutes.

Kraken vs Stars Game 5 Over/Under analysis

After the Over went a perfect 4-0 to begin the series with closing totals of 5.5, some books have finally adjusted the total and opened it at 6 for Game 5. 

It isn’t a unanimous move to 6, as some books are still posting heavily juiced 5.5s to the Over, so there’s some room for both Over and Under bettors to shop around and take either side of the total.

For me, the number of unexpected goals and insane Seattle shooting percentage were making me lean to the Under 5.5 at even money in Game 4, but with the move to 6 tonight, getting the Under 6 at -115 is something I’m warming up to.

Both Oettinger and Philipp Grubauer have been playing below expected in the series, and the amount of quality chances just doesn’t indicate this should be as high-scoring as it is. Seattle has a near-15% shooting percentage with 17 goals on 115 shots. Only six of those goals have come on high-danger chances, while four of them were on low-danger chances. Oettinger has been showing us the floor, so hopefully, anything going forward is better in terms of production.

Dallas has also been living with a high 13% shooting percentage, and ranks 11th of the 16 playoff teams in terms of expected goals/60 at even strength. Their power play has done plenty of scoring with a 34.3% success rate, but the opportunities should be drying up as the series gets deeper. 

It’s been a frustrating series for Under bettors as the metrics are showing a low-scoring series, but I’m staying firm here as the amount of scoring chances that the underdogs are creating is not indicative of two-way scoring. The books were hesitant to move this to 6 for a reason.

Kraken vs Stars betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in the Kraken’s last four following a loss of three or more goals. Find more NHL betting trends for Kraken vs. Stars.

Kraken vs Stars Game 5 game info

Kraken vs Stars Game 5 injuries

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