The Philadelphia Flyers are on the second game of a back-to-back that happened to follow a home-and-home series with the Buffalo Sabres. Now down to their third-string goalie, they’ll host the legitimate Los Angeles Kings tonight as a +150 home dog.
With the Flyers' tank emptied last night in a revenge game vs. Buffalo and likely turning to the backup’s backup, should bettors be getting on this Over 6.5 before it hits 7?
I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for Kings vs. Flyers on November 4.
Kings vs Flyers odds
Kings vs Flyers predictions
The Flyers saw an opening total of 7 last night in the second game of a home-and-home with the Sabres, which they won 5-1 and carried a 3-0 lead into the first intermission after scoring a pair in the opening 120 seconds. With tonight’s total opening at 6.5 and leaning just a little to the Over, I can’t get on this quick enough.
The now 5-5-1 Flyers needed that early lead with Samuel Ersson in net, who entered that tilt with a 4.91 GAA over three games. The lead allowed Philly to sit back and slow the Sabres down, which they did, as Buffalo finished with one goal on 22 shots and 2.76 expected goals, per Money Puck.
Getting another elite defensive performance on short rest will be hard for John Tortorella considering last night was the second game of a home-and-home, and tonight’s opponent is much better than the Sabres.
The Kings rank first in goals for/60 at even strength on the season at a whopping 4.17. Their shooting percentage is above the league average at 12%, but the Flyers also rank in the Bottom 5 in save percentage. I don’t expect an improvement on that SV% tonight with No. 3 Cal Petersen likely getting the nod.
Petersen was recalled after the injury to starting goalie Carter Hart. Petersen was a former King, so I lean the advantage to the L.A. shooters here due to familiarity. He also has a career 2.92 GAA in the NHL over 100 games and hasn’t posted a SV% north of .900 since 2020.
The Kings’ goaltending hasn’t been stellar this season and is one of the things that is holding them back from being an elite team in the West. L.A. is averaging over seven total goals per game thanks in part to a 3.01 GAA.
With a pair of Top-10 offenses, a tired Philly team that might not be fully prepared for its opponent, some questionable goaltending, and a great price, I’m hitting the Over 6.5 at -122 and wouldn’t be surprised to see this hit 7 in some places.
My best bet: Over 6.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
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Kings vs Flyers same-game parlay
Over 6.5
First-period Over 1.5
Travis Konecny anytime goal
Quinton Byfield anytime goal
Let’s go big here in a game I like to see plenty of goals. The Flyers see more first-period goals than any other team in hockey at 2.64 per opening frame. They could also start off slow having come off a big home-and-home game last night.
Quinton Byfield has found his way to the top line and PP2 unit for the Kings. He has six points over his last five games with just one goal but has been put in plenty of solid scoring opportunities with his emergences.
Travis Konecny had one goal last night, which was his ninth on the season and ties him for the league lead. He has at least one goal in over 50% of his games this year and is in Tortorella’s good books, which means more ice time.
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Kings vs Flyers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Flyers hit a low point in their pricing last night as they were as long as +150 vs. Buffalo in the second game of a back-to-back. It was almost a point where bettors had to buy them despite Samuel Ersson getting the start. It proved to be the right move as the Flyers won convincingly, 5-1, in a game that had an opening total of 7.
Now the Flyers return home vs. a non-conference team in L.A. that sits as a -170 road favorite. I’m not rushing out to buy the Kings here at that price, but this is a bad schedule spot for the Flyers who emptied the tank last night to even the home-and-home with a playoff-contending team in Buffalo.
L.A. is one of the best teams in hockey in my opinion and really isn’t undervalued in this spot by the oddsmakers. If the Flyers get any longer, say +160/+165, they might warrant some consideration on the moneyline despite the tough opponent and schedule spot, though. This is the last game of an East Coast swing for L.A. as they will have three days off before their next game in Las Vegas. Bettors might not see the best efforts of either team tonight.
I love goals in this match as Philadelphia has enough scoring talent to play the trailing game. They’ve seen a closing total of 7 twice this season and I feel the books are still undervaluing the total in L.A. games and pricing its totals on the team they were more last year than this year.
The Kings aren’t getting great goaltending and the offense has hit another gear with the emergence of Byfield, who has jumped up to the top line and paying a very reasonable +360 to score. Very few teams are as deep down the middle as the Kings with Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault, and Pierre-Luc Dubois. I like both of these offenses very much.
This game could lack intensity thanks to the scheduling, which also has me expecting goals.
Kings vs Flyers betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in the Kings' last five Saturday games. Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs. Flyers.
Kings vs Flyers game info
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, November 4, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
