Hurricanes vs Panthers Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Carolina Can't Solve Bobrovsky Puzzle

The Hurricanes have scored just three goals on 135 shots against Sergei Bobrovsky in this series. Facing elimination on the road tonight, our NHL betting picks are fading that offense one last time — read more below.

Last Updated: May 24, 2023 5:51 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Florida Panthers have a chance to advance to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 1996. They own a 3-0 series lead over the Carolina Hurricanes and enter Game 4 as slight -115 home favorites with a total of 5.5 leaning to the Under.

Sergei Bobrovsky has emerged as the betting favorite for the Conn Smythe Trophy thanks to a 10-1 record over his last 11 games including seven straight games won by a single goal. The Carolina offense struggled to score down the stretch in the regular season and those habits have resurfaced in this third-round series.  

I break down the matchup and more in my Hurricanes vs. Panthers NHL betting picks below.

Hurricanes vs Panthers Game 4 odds

Hurricanes vs Panthers Game 4 predictions

The Carolina Hurricanes have scored just three goals in the series and despite winning all the possession metrics and the shots on goal percentage, they have no answer for Sergei Bobrovsky

At all strengths, the Hurricanes have a 2.22% shooting percentage in the series and a 2.86 SH% on its high-danger chances. These are incredibly low numbers and they’re running out of time to correct them, and the way Carolina was scoring entering the playoffs doesn’t give me a lot of faith that the Canes are going to figure it out tonight.

Between March 1 and the start of the playoffs, Carolina had the worst SH% at all strengths in hockey including the worst HDSH%. We forgot about it while they played the Islanders and New Jersey and racked up a Top-3 SH% and a HDSH% nearly 10 points higher than its season average. 

Now, they’re struggling to score and it shouldn’t really surprise many. This is still a Florida Panthers team that held Toronto to two or fewer goals in five straight games and now the Hurricanes have three goals in three games on 135 shots for a 2.22% SH% and 2.86% on HDCF. 

Over a longer amount of time, these numbers will improve but with potentially just one game remaining on their season, I don’t like the chances of it magically happening tonight.

It’s not like Carolina isn’t getting shots away. The Canes have at least a 56% Corsi%, Fenwick%, and SOG% share in the series but they lead all third-round teams in low-danger chances.

It’s going to be another low-scoring affair in Game 4. The Canes are squeezing the sticks hard and I don’t see that trend changing tonight.

My best betCarolina team total Under 2.5 (+105 at bet365)

Hurricanes vs Panthers Game 4 same-game parlay

Carolina team total Under 2.5 (+105)

Sebastian Aho Over 2.5 shots on goal (-125)

Gustav Forsling Over 1.5 blocked shots (-140)

The Carolina team total Under and Aho Over are giving us a better multiplier than true odds thanks to them technically working against each other. However, Carolina has no issue getting low-quality shots on net in the series but is struggling to beat Bobrovsky. 

Aho could see bigger minutes tonight with the season on the line and him being the team's best offensive player. He went 5-1 to the Over on this prop in the first round and is 2-1 to the Over vs. Florida.

Carolina has dominated the shot attempt share in the series and is still getting roughly 64 shot attempts per game (all strengths) which leads all teams in the third round. Carolina will have to continue to get shots on Bobrovsky if the Canes want to beat him and that could lead to more blocked shot chances for Gustav Forsling, who leads his team in the category in the playoffs and sees heavy minutes. 

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Hurricanes vs Panthers Game 4 moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I’m not a trend bettor but it is very surprising that Carolina is 0-11 in its last 11 Conference Final games spanning over three separate teams and dating back to 2009, but they were also swept as recently as the 2018-19 season and despite a possible injury to Florida's Alex Barkov, this Carolina team is shooting too poorly to back as a slight -105 favorite.

The Canes have scored on just three of their 135 shots in the series, which equates to a 2.22% shooting percentage. They thrived in the early rounds with an unsustainable SH% on high-danger chances at 26.3% which was 12 points higher than their rate from the final month of the regular season. 

The regression has hit hard and there isn’t a lot of time to swing things into their favor — especially against a team that has won seven straight one-goal games and hasn’t allowed more than two goals since April. 

Game 3 closed as a pick'em on the moneyline and now we’re seeing the books move to the Panthers despite Alex Barkov being questionable to play. Playoff injury news is hard to confirm so the forward is a game-time decision tonight. If he's out, Carolina could move to the favorite at -115 but being down 3-0 in a series on the road vs. a goalie you can’t beat is mentally tough to overcome. 

Eetu Luostarinen would jump into Barkov’s top-six role while Carter Verhaeghe would move to PP1. There’s a slight bump in both of those skaters’ props if Barkov does sit. 

Carolina is winning the Corsi/Fenwick/SOG battle but can’t solve Sergei Bobrovsky. This is going to be another tight game and that’s why the Under is taking more money.

The Under is a perfect 3-0 in the series while Bob and the Cats are 8-0 to the Under over their last eight playoff games dating back to the first round. Florida doesn't push the offense when playing with a lead and is comfortable holding on to late leads or winning close games.

They’ve played seven straight one-goal games (all Unders) and have had success with keeping their opponent off the scoreboard despite losing the possession and shot battles. 

Freddy Andersen has also played great on the other side and sits fourth in goals saved above expected/60 in the playoffs (minimum five starts).

Since Game 1, this total has moved 50 points to the Under and is the side I lean on tonight in Game 4.  

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Hurricanes vs Panthers betting trend to know

The Hurricanes are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs. Panthers.

Hurricanes vs Panthers Game 4 game info

Location: FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, FL
Date: Wednesday, May 24, 2023
Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET

Hurricanes vs Panthers Game 4 injuries

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