Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Going Over Out of the All-Star Break

NHL betting fans get to come out of the All-Star break with just two games on the schedule tonight, also one of them will be an absolute doozie as the Carolina Hurricanes visit the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Hurricanes went into the break winners of four straight and seven of their last eight games, while the Leafs rode a five-game win streak into the ASB.

Toronto is the home favorite tonight... but is that the side our free NHL picks and predictions will lean towards?

Find out in our betting preview for Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs on Monday, February 7.

Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The line opened at Toronto -134/Carolina +119 for tonight's matchup and still remains in that vicinity, with some books going as low as Leafs -145/Hurricanes +125 and others as short as -125/105. It's a similar line to the previous meeting between these clubs this season, which closed at Carolina -116/Toronto +105 in Raleigh in late October. The total opened at 6.0 and has since moved to 6.5, shaded to the Under.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs predictions

• Prediction: Hurricanes ML (+120)
• Prediction: Over 6.5 (+100)
• Best bet: Over 6.5 (+100)

Predictions made on 2/7/2022 at 12:38 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Monday, February 7, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports South

Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Key injuries

Hurricanes: Teuvo Teravainen LW (Day-to-Day), Jesperi Kotkaniemi C (Out).
Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin D (Day-to-Day).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (2019-present)

Hurricanes: 2-1-0, 16 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 1-2-0, 12 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 6-1-1 in the Maple Leafs' last eight games as a home favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs.

Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

The Leafs went into the All-Star break absolutely scorching hot on offense, scoring seven, six, and seven goals in their last three games while winning five straight.

Yes, those last three offensive explosions came against Detroit and New Jersey (twice), and four of the five wins came against non-playoff teams, but Toronto strongly outplayed each opponent, posting the fourth-highest 5-on-5 Corsi For Percentage in the league during this win streak, with the fourth-most expected goals per 60 minutes and sixth-most high-danger chances per 60 (per Natural Stat Trick).

But here's the thing: there's only a small handful of teams this year that stand to outplay the Leafs at 5-on-5... and Carolina is one of them.

Toronto is fourth in the NHL in points percentage this year but the Hurricanes are currently sitting second and are just as hot, winning four straight games and seven of eight overall — with goal prevention being the big focus at the moment.

Carolina has surrendered seven total goals over its last four games and has held opponents to just one goal in four of these previous eight contests. That's not to say that the Hurricanes don't generate offense — over the last two weeks, they are third in 5-on-5 Corsi For per 60, xGF/60, and second in HDCF/60 — but the real shining star recently has been All-Star goaltender Frederik Andersen, who has a 1.41 GAA, .951 SV%, and 4.91 goals saved above average over his last six starts and will make his first appearance in Toronto since leaving the Leafs (after five seasons with the team) via free agency in the offseason.

Toronto's All-Star goalie, Jack Campbell, has not been as hot as Andersen, giving up 3+ goals in six of his last seven outings (with a sub-.900 SV% in five of those contests), and Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe actually already announced Petr Mrazek — who ironically spent three years with Carolina before leaving to sign as a free agent with Toronto this offseason — will start tonight.

The Leafs backup has actually outplayed his teammate recently, giving up two or fewer goals in three of his last four outings, but his 2.94 GAA, .902 SV%, .333 quality start percentage, and -1.5 goals saved above average for the season suggest the Canes will have the big advantage between the pipes.

Toronto's biggest edge in this game will be the power play. Over the last two weeks, the Leafs are scoring on 38.5% of their man-advantage chances, which is third in the NHL. While they will be challenged to score against a Carolina penalty kill that's successfully survived 91.7% of all shorthanded situations during that span, they are a better matchup than the Canes PP, which has converted just 8.3% of power plays (31st), against a Leafs PK that sports an identical mark to Carolina.

Both teams have been dominant lately at 5-on-5 and possess multiple lines capable of beating you, but Toronto has been conceding goals due to shaky goaltending while Carolina has been able to clamp down. We look at the goaltending edge as the impactful difference between these teams tonight, so we're going to lean with the road side getting plus money. 

Prediction: Hurricanes ML (+120)

Over/Under analysis

Toronto's offense has been buzzing, the power play has been clicking, and the goaltending has been subpar. That's a perfect recipe for Overs, which have cashed in four straight Leafs games and nine of the previous 11 overall — with six of those games hitting at least eight goals.

Carolina, by comparison, has hit three straight Unders — but that was preceded by a stretch of seven Overs in nine contests and Carolina's offense was somewhat unlucky, with 10.93 expected goals in these three recent games (per Moneypuck) against an actual total of six goals.

After not playing since January 30, Carolina will be well-rested and should be able to squeeze a few against a Toronto team that has allowed at least three goals in seven of its last 10 games, while we'd be shocked if the Leafs offense (which has potted at least three goals in eight straight home games) doesn't get a couple tallies of its own — even against a familiar face in Freddie Andersen.

The total has also gone Over in four of the last five head-to-head matchups in Toronto — let's make it five of six.

Prediction: Over 6.5 (+100)

Best bet

When it comes to facing good teams, the Canes offense comes to life, as the Over has hit in five straight Hurricanes games against teams with winning records. The total has also gone Over in three of Carolina's last four road games, with 11 goals in New Jersey, eight goals in Boston, and 11 at Columbus.

The Over is a combined 8-4-1 in the two days' worth of games following the previous two All-Star Games (2020 and 2019). Tonight's matchup started at a total of 6.0 but quickly moved up to 6.5 — we're going to follow that sentiment and back on another high-scoring game coming out of the All-Star break.

Pick: Over 6.5 (+100)

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