The Toronto Maple Leafs lost their second straight game for the first time since early January in a 2-1 shootout loss to the Avs on Wednesday. Now they're set to host the Carolina Hurricanes as -125 favorites in the front half of a back-to-back with Ottawa on deck tomorrow.
The Hurricanes will be without their No.1 even-strength scorer in Andrei Svechnikov, while the Leafs are struggling to generate offense with a seven-defensemen approach. Will this be another low-scoring road game for a Canes team that currently nets the fewest goals on the road?
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs on March 17.
Hurricanes vs Leafs best odds
Hurricanes vs Leafs picks and predictions
Tonight will make the fifth game in a row that the Toronto Maple Leafs will dress seven defensemen. In that stretch, they’ve managed just seven total goals and 2.68 expected goals per game. They aren’t playing with the puck much (Corsi% of 47%) and face one of the best defensive teams in hockey tonight.
The struggling Toronto offense will likely see Freddy Andersen, who has a 2.25 GAA since returning from injury — a 16-game stretch. He’ll be supported by a penalty kill that has been perfect over its last 12 games, and the best 5-on-5 defensive team in hockey with an insane 60% xGoal%.
I don’t expect the Carolina Hurricanes to run up the score, either. They’ve lost star forward Andrei Svechnikov and have been shut out in three of their last four games.
This injured offense must also beat Ilya Samsonov, who has been lights out at Scotiabank Arena this season.
#LeafsForever Ilya Samsonov at home this season:
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) March 16, 2023
17-2-2
1.95 GAA
.928 SV%
2 Shutouts pic.twitter.com/8Ey3UqmbhR
This is going to be a very tight hockey game and the market is already moving to the Under. A play toward a low-scoring outcome checks a lot of boxes, including faith in both goalies, a bad offensive matchup for the favorite, elite penalty kills, and a likely playoff atmosphere.
My best bet: Under 6 (-110 at SIA)
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Hurricanes vs Leafs moneyline analysis
The Maple Leafs followed up their poor performance on Monday against the Sabres with another clunker on Wednesday. Despite managing to get a point in a 2-1 shootout loss, it was an offense that struggled to gain the offensive zone, finishing with 1.85 expected goals and a 35% Corsi%.
It was another uninspiring game for a team that continues to play seven defensemen to poor results.
Over the four games, the Leafs have dressed one extra defender, managed just seven goals, lost the Corsi battle in three of the four games, and have a minus-21 high-danger chance differential according to Natural Stat Trick. Those results have equated to a 1-3 record — taking two outright losses as a -200 favorite or shorter.
Although that’s a small sample size, the team is struggling to generate offense with its constant rotation on the blue line, and now they welcome one of the stingiest teams in all of hockey.
Carolina is the best team in hockey in both Corsi% and xGoal% at 5-on-5, which is something the Leafs are struggling with right now. With the loss of one of its best offensive players in Andrei Svechnikov, it wouldn’t surprise me to see an elite defensive effort from a very underrated Hurricanes' blue line.
Carolina sees the fewest total goals on the road at 5.66 and I’m expecting this to be another even and low-scoring game that has me leaning for the plus money on the visitors.
I’d play the Canes at +110, but I'd likely lean on the price between +100 and +105. They're arguably the toughest opponent for a Leafs' team that is currently struggling to generate offense.
Hurricanes vs Leafs Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 6 and has seen some slight movement to the Under, which is how I’m betting on this game.
Since Andersen's return to the crease, he’s 12-4 straight up with a 2.25 GAA. His .909 save percentage also indicates a team in front of him that doesn’t allow many chances.
Meanwhile, the Carolina offense will be missing Svechnikov and faces a goalie in Samsonov who is coming off a brilliant performance against Colorado.
The Canes have also killed 28 straight penalties and have one of the best penalty kills in all of hockey. To make matters worse for Toronto, 25% of the Leafs’ offense has come from their power play over the last five games.
Toronto hasn't netted a goal in over 50 minutes of action and I don’t expect to see either side light it up tonight. I’m on the Under 6 and will play it to -115.
Hurricanes vs Leafs betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1-1 in the Hurricanes' last eight games following a win. Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs Leafs.
Hurricanes vs Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, March 17, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally South, TSN4 |
Hurricanes vs Leafs key injuries
