There is a Western Conference tilt on Tuesday evening with the Central Division’s Chicago Blackhawks hosting the Pacific Division’s Vegas Golden Knights. In what is expected to be a lopsided affair, Vegas searches for an easy two points to hold onto the first seed in the Pacific.
Will the visitors take care of business as large road favorites, or can Chicago play spoiler at the United Center? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for the Golden Knights vs Blackhawks on Tuesday, February 21.
Golden Knights vs Blackhawks best odds
Golden Knights vs Blackhawks picks and predictions
The Chicago Blackhawks enter this contest following Sunday’s stunning 5-3 upset over the Toronto Maple Leafs. A massive part of Chicago’s success in that matchup — outside of Patrick Kane’s brilliance — was the play of goaltender Jaxson Stauber, who is projected to start between the pipes for the Hawks on Tuesday night.
Through five starts this season, the rookie netminder is 4-1 with a .912 SV% and 2.76 GAA. Based on his metrics, regression is unlikely for Stauber.
If he qualified, Stauber would rank 11th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. However, goal support will be Stauber’s bigger concern.
At 5-on-5, Chicago ranks last in the league in expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60), which is not shocking given the construction of this roster. This offense should especially struggle against one of the best two-way teams in the league.
Entering this matchup, the Vegas Golden Knights rank fourth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. Backing up this defensively elite group is goaltender Laurent Brossoit, who will be making his season debut with Adin Hill and Logan Thompson both out with injuries.
This game should serve as both an easy and important opportunity for Brossoit to make a case for staying on the active roster, especially for a guy who is 2-0 with a .917 SV% and 3.00 GAA over his last two starts against the Hawks. There have now been six or fewer total goals scored in 11 of Vegas’ last 15 games, a trend that is likely to continue in this contest.
My best bet: Under 6.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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Golden Knights vs Blackhawks moneyline analysis
The Golden Knights are massive favorites for good reason. They are a serious contender in the Western Conference while Chicago continues to tank for Connor Bedard. Vegas is better both offensively and defensively, by a massive margin.
However, even though the Hawks are typically an auto-fade for me, I do not want to lay juice on the Knights’ puck line against Stauber on home ice. Both his surface-level stats and underlying metrics are excellent, even with keeping the small sample size in mind.
His record only further improves when playing at the United Center, a venue where Stauber is undefeated. If Mrazek does end up playing instead of Stauber, then Vegas –1.5 at –110 is a great play to make, although I will just stick to the total in this game either way.
Golden Knights vs Blackhawks Over/Under analysis
The total opened up anywhere from 6.0 or 6.5 depending on your sportsbook, with the 6s juiced to the Over. The Blackawks have produced a somewhat profitable O/U record at 29-26 this season, but Vegas has been very solid on the Under, going 22-29-5.
The main concern with taking this total is that Vegas’ offense is almost as good as their defense. At 5-on-5, the Knights rank ninth in the league in xGF/60.
This strong offense could especially be problematic against the Hawks’ terrible blue line. With that said, Chicago should struggle mightily to score in this contest, so even if Vegas hangs four or five goals, the Hawks could easily finish the game with two or fewer scored.
Golden Knights vs Blackhawks betting trend to know
There have now been six or fewer total goals scored in 11 of the Knights’ last 15 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs Blackhawks.
Golden Knights vs Blackhawks game info
| Location: | United Center, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 21, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN1 |
