Flames vs Kings Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Korpisalo Continues to Shine for L.A.

Los Angeles is on a hunt for the top spot in the Pacific Division while Calgary is fighting for a Wild Card spot. With L.A. struggling offensively and possessing a strong defensive front, our NHL betting picks are siding with the Under.

Last Updated: Mar 19, 2023 8:05 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Joonas Korpisalo Los Angeles Kings NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Two teams from the Pacific will do battle in the NHL nightcap, with the Los Angeles Kings hosting the Calgary Flames.

In a game that carries massive playoff implications, Los Angeles looks to catch Vegas for the first seed while Calgary continues to chase the final Wild Card spot.

Will L.A. take care of business on home ice, or can the visitors grab a massive two points? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for the Flames vs Kings on Monday, March 20.

Flames vs Kings best odds

Flames vs Kings picks and predictions

The Los Angeles Kings enter this contest amidst a flurry of low-scoring contests, with six or fewer total goals scored in six of their last eight outings. Part of the reason for this trend is Los Angeles’ elite two-way play.

At 5-on-5, the Kings rank fifth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Not only does Los Angeles boast a deep blue line, but it possesses a forward group with a bunch of great back checkers.

Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault, and Trevor Moore all make life extremely difficult for opposing skaters. Mix together a strong blue line and a forward group willing to play in all three zones, it is not shocking the Kings prevent high-danger scoring chances at an elite level.

Backing up this strong defensive team is newly acquired goaltender Joonas Korpisalo, who has been brilliant between the pipes since getting shipped over from Columbus. In his four starts with Los Angeles, Korpisalo is 3-0-1 with a .921 SV% and 1.96 GAA.

Based on his underlying metrics, regression is unlikely for the Finnish netminder. Among starting goaltenders, he ranks eighth in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

Similar to the Kings, the Calgary Flames play a hard-nosed two-way game, ranking sixth in the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5

Not only that, but the Flames’ special teams also suggest lower-scoring games. This season, Calgary ranks just 21st in the league in power-play goals but 10th in penalty kill goals against.

Considering all of these variables, the Under is the play to make at 6.5. However, I would lay more juice at that number rather than take the Under at six.

My best bet: Under 6.5 (-130 at BetMGM)

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Flames vs Kings moneyline analysis

This game should have a playoff atmosphere to it with two divisional foes squaring off and a massive two points on the line. With that in mind, I would rather just take the Under than back either club.

Despite the difference in record, these teams are relatively even, which is why this is priced as a pick ‘em. Both sides are basically equal defensively, but the Flames are better offensively while the Kings have a big advantage in the goaltending department.

Korpisalo’s excellent play is likely to continue against Calgary, a team he typically fares extremely well against. Over his last six appearances against the Flames, Korpisalo boasts a .931 SV% and 2.35 GAA.

There were six or fewer total goals scored in four of those six outings, so I'll be staying away from picking a side here and just sticking with the total.

Flames vs Kings Over/Under analysis

By far, the biggest concern in taking the Under in this contest is Calgary’s goaltending, which has been disastrous all season and is the only reason this club is not firmly holding onto a playoff spot. Slated to start in the crease for the Flames is goaltender Jacob Markstrom, who has struggled this season to say the least.

However, perhaps the Kings’ underwhelming offense will aid in a bounce back performance for Markstrom, especially considering his track record against them. Over his 16 career starts against Los Angeles, Markstrom is 9-3-4 with a .918 SV% and 2.71 GAA.

Additionally, winger Kevin Fiala has missed each of the Kings’ last four games with a lower-body injury. North of a point-per-game player and a big asset offensively, it is not shocking that there have been six or fewer total goals scored in three of those four games without him.

Flames vs Kings betting trend to know

There have been six or fewer total goals scored in six of the Kings’ last eight games. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Kings. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs Kings.

Flames vs Kings game info

Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Monday, March 20, 2023
Puck drop: 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports West, Sportsnet West

Flames vs Kings key injuries


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