Capitals vs Oilers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Edmonton Steps On the Gas Early

The Edmonton Oilers are finally rested after a stretch of six games in nine days and enter tonight as a heavy home favorite vs. the Washington Capitals who are in the second outing of a five-game road trip.  

With a massive schedule advantage and facing a team coming off a shutout loss, is betting on Edmonton in the first 20 minutes the best way to bet on this non-conference game?

I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for the Capitals vs. Oilers on March 13.   

Capitals vs Oilers odds

Capitals vs Oilers predictions

The Edmonton Oilers are back to their winning ways and have restocked the cupboards following some solid deadline acquisitions. They also returned home following Sunday’s win over the Penguins which capped off a six-game, nine-day run where they went 4-1-1. 

"Obviously we don't love the two losses, but we've played a lot of hockey lately," Connor McDavid said referring to the 2-1-1 road-trip record. "That's no excuse, obviously, but six games in nine games with travel coast to coast, it's been a grind here. So, we'll take the two points here. We'll take five of eight on the road trip. And we'll take a little rest at home."

The rest is key here. The Oilers finally got a chance to run a full practice with their new pieces and the extra time and prep is going to go a long way today vs. the Washington Capitals who that are coming off a shutout loss to the Jets.

The Caps have been playing above their numbers this month and are playing their second of a five-game, eight-day road trip that has them in Seattle tomorrow night. 

It’s a massive schedule advantage for the Oilers who are already -300 home favorites, so plenty of that is priced in. So where is the best value on the Edmonton side other than the tough-to-buy sides? 

With Washington coming off a shutout and lacking scoring talent, the first period should be Edmonton’s. The Oilers to win the first period on the -0.5 puck line is +100, but they're also -125 to score first in the first period.

It’s not a very common market, but considering Edmonton is -190 to score first (full game), that is a big difference in a game with a 6.5 total and first-period scoring expected. 

Only three other teams have scored more first-period goals than the Oilers this year and this prop is the result of finding a betting angle and applying it to niche markets to find the best value.

Charlie Lindgren still has a GAA north of 3.00 over his last 10 starts despite the Caps’ recent success, and with the Oilers now very spread out offensively with Leon Draisaitl on the second line, this thin Washington club cannot matchup well — especially without the last change. Even Alex Ovechkin knows this Washington roster lacks talent. 

"We have Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre. So we're good"

Ovechkin isn't fazed when it comes to the Capitals facing McDavid/Draisaitl on separate lines. pic.twitter.com/oMbw5wFCEk

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 12, 2024

My best bet: Oilers to score first in first period (-125 at SIA)

Capitals vs Oilers same-game parlay

Oilers to score first

Oilers to score last 

Oilers Over 1.5 first period goals

+390 at SIA

I'm backing some early Edmonton offense in this +390 SGP with the toughest leg being the 1P team total Over 1.5. The Caps haven't been a great defensive team and their goaltending is still very questionable. The time off and full practicing is a great thing for the Oilers with some new pieces and some adjustments needed. 

The moneyline move from -250 to -300 is telling in regards to what the market thinks about this matchup and it's been all Edmonton money so far today. The last goal is made a little easier with Connor McDavid who is looking to catch Nathan MacKinnon in a points race, so any empty-net points are a bonus, but ones he'll be hunting. 

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Capitals vs Oilers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

SIA opened the Oilers as a -250 home favorite but that number didn't last long as by 11 a.m. ET, the home side had shortened up to -300. It’s tough to back Edmonton anywhere on a side as even the -1.5 puck line is -115. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some Washington money come in at the current +240 price. I don’t love the Caps in this spot, especially early thanks to the schedule, but this team started this road trip with a 7-2-1 record in its previous 10 games. 

However, Washington’s underlying 5-on-5 metrics of late don’t show a team playing to a 70% win rate. If anyone is buying the Caps, it’s on price alone as they're not a good roster and the scheduled spot with Seattle tomorrow is not great.

The top line in Washington is a very good indicator of how thin this team is as Ovechkin is playing with Hendrix Lapierre and Aliaksei Protas. The visitors did get T.J. Oshie back last game but are still not nearly as deep as the Oilers who have Adam Henrique and Evander Kane on the third line. Tom Wilson is also questionable for Washington after missing the last game in Winnipeg. 

SIA is one of the final books with a flat 6.0 total that is -135 to the Over and likely to close at 6.5. Edmonton seems to be back to its Under ways which coincides with its winning. The Oilers enter tonight 2-8 O/U over their last 10 games and a lot of that has to do with the play of Stuart Skinner in net who has posted a 1.54 GAA and a .947 SV%. 

With the Washington team total Under 2.5 paying -145, it’s tough to see two-way scoring tonight. Washington’s offense has been very lucky of late with the No. 1 shooting percentage at 5-on-5 over the last 10 games. I’m off the total unless I can get the Washington team total Under 2.5 at -130 or better. 
   

Capitals vs Oilers betting trend to know

The Oilers have covered the first period puck line in 45 of their last 90 games (+10.95 Units / 11% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Oilers.

Capitals vs Oilers game info

Capitals vs Oilers latest injuries

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