Bruins vs Panthers Game 6 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Bennett Makes Florida a Tough Out

The Florida Panthers have swung momentum to their side following a 4-3 overtime win on Wednesday vs. the Boston Bruins and forcing tonight’s Game 6, where the Panthers sit as decent +160 home underdogs.

The Bruins are mulling a goalie change, while the Panthers are riding the benefits of their own switch to Sergei Bobrovsky. With the total moving from 6 to 6.5, some more offense is expected. If the Panthers are getting on the board, it will likely be coming from Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett.

Find out where my best bets lie in our NHL picks and predictions for Bruins vs. Panthers on Friday, April 28.

Bruins vs Panthers Game 6 odds

Bruins vs Panthers series odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 28.

Bruins vs Panthers Game 6 predictions

Sam Bennett adds an offensive element to this Florida Panthers team that is missed when he’s out. He’s recorded a point in each of the four games he’s played in the series and has scored three goals — two at even strength. He missed 13 games entering the playoffs, where the Panthers went 6-7 SU scoring 3.3 goals per game. Since his return, Florida is 2-2 SU vs. the best team in hockey history in the Boston Bruins, and scoring 3.5 goals per game. 

He’s playing on a line with Matthew Tkachuk, who has a 1.5-point total, and both players’ skill sets work well in playoff hockey, as both are aggressive and can finish around the net.

Through five games, four of which Bennett has played, he leads the team in shots on goal/60, shot attempts/60, and on-ice expected goal% at 68%. With the last-change advantage tonight and possibly facing Jeremy Swayman, I expect Bennett to find the scoresheet.

The Panthers are heavy +160 home dogs — a price I think is 15 to 20 points too long — so we’re also getting an even better price on his point market at -106 for the Over. 

His line has dominated possession at 5-on-5, he leads the team in expected goals/60, and he and Tkachuk have an on-ice Corsi percentage of 67%. The only disadvantage is that he plays on the second power-play unit. But with so much on the line tonight, I expect fewer penalties to be called and this game to be played predominantly at 5-on-5, where Bennett and Tkachuk have been exceptional.  

If Carter Verhaeghe finds himself on the second line, this could be a two-unit play for me. 

My best bet: Bennett Over 0.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)

Bruins vs Panthers Game 6 moneyline analysis

Following his overtime goal in Game 5, Tkachuk told his teammates that they’ll be back in Boston for a Game 7. With the Bruins questioning a goalie switch, getting on the home side at +160 is appetizing.

The Panthers were outplayed in Game 5, as Boston finished with a 63.4% xG% at 5-on-5. But Sergei Bobrovsky stood on his head and Florida capitalized, scoring on two of their seven high-danger chances. Boston is winning the possession metrics so far in the series, but the high-danger chances at 5-on-5 are fairly even. If the Panthers can continue to get solid goaltending, they are live at home tonight as a long dog.

Florida closed as a +140 home dog in Game 4, yet are 20 points longer tonight. Second-line center David Krejci is still questionable after missing two games for the Bruins, David Pastrnak has just one point at 5-on-5 (two points total), and Jeremy Swayman might get the start in net, as Boston coach Jim Montgomery told the media on Thursday that he isn’t ruling out sitting Linus Ullmark. I feel this +160 moneyline is saying Ullmark is drawing the start, and if Swayman were to get the nod, that +160 could shorten up.

Boston hasn’t had to face much adversity this season, and if Florida can get another solid game out of Bobrovsky tonight, the Panthers are very live. Considering they’re 20 points longer than the last time they were at home, and Boston is considering a change in net, Florida is the side tonight at this price.

Bruins vs Panthers Game 6 Over/Under analysis

This series has seen the Over go 3-2, with the recent closing totals getting awfully close to 6.5 but closing at 6. Today’s total opened at 6, and some 6.5s have popped up in the afternoon. 

It’s hard to project a total here when I’m unsure if Ullmark or Swayman will be in net. I think a game that features Ullmark vs. Bobrovsky projects better to the Under 6.5 — especially at even money. However, with this being an elimination game (usually priced into the total) and Bobrovsky being slightly overvalued, I do like the Over in a Swayman vs. Bobrovsky game if you can get a 6 at -125 or better.

Bob saved the Panthers in Game 5 with a stellar second and third period where he saw 34 shots, but he’s also allowed nine goals on 86 shots through three games. I do trust him at +160, but this is not likely going to be a zero-goal or one-goal performance from the Florida netminder.  

The Florida offense has also shown that it can win when giving up multiple goals, as both of its two wins have come when giving up three goals. 

The addition of Bennett to this lineup is night-and-day for the Panthers. Since he’s returned, the Panthers are averaging 3.5 goals per game (3.5 expected goals as well).

His addition to the second line is a huge boost for Tkachuk and allows the Panthers to run a very dangerous third line of Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell, and Sam Reinhart.

The Bruins could also add offensively tonight if Krejci suits up. He’s missed three straight games and would also make the Bruins a three-line team tonight if he dresses. He did travel with the team and seems to be more probable than doubtful.

If you can get the 6, the Over is the play.

Bruins vs Panthers betting trend to know

The Over is 8-1 in the Bruins’ last nine road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Panthers.

Bruins vs Panthers Game 6 game info

Bruins vs Panthers Game 6 injuries

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