Dylan Larkin has shot the lights out all season long, especially on home soil.
That trend should continue in an advantageous matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs, which is why he headlines my three NHL prop picks for December 28.
Best NHL player prop bets today
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Bo Horvat Over 0.5 points |
-150 |
 Noah Dobson Over 1.5 shots |
-110 |
 Dylan Larkin Over 2.5 shots |
-125 |
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Our best NHL player props for Sunday, December 28
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Prop #1: Bo Horvat Over 0.5 points
The Columbus Blue Jackets are a dream opponent for offensive players. They rank near the bottom of the league in shot suppression and near the top in pace, leading to a lot of high-event, high-scoring games.
Bo Horvat has excelled in those kinds of matchups all year long. Isolating opponents who rank Bottom-10 in shots against, Bottom-10 in goals against, or both, Horvat has averaged 3.6 shots on goal, a point per game, and found the scoresheet in eight of his last 11 contests.
Columbus will also be without superstar defenseman Zach Werenski. He is one of the most dominant players in the sport and plays a crazy amount of minutes.
Not having Werenski to control the puck and tempo of the game should greatly benefit Horvat and the Islanders.
- Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SN+, ESPN+
Prop #2: Noah Dobson Over 1.5 shots
Noah Dobson has shot the puck more frequently of late. He has averaged 4.5 attempts over his last 10 games, up from his season output of 4.0 per night.
Dobson has cleared his 1.5 shot total six times in that span, including a three shot on goal performance against these same Lightning.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are dealing with cluster injuries on the back end as Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak, and Emil Lilleberg are all sidelined.
Those injuries should allow for the Montreal Canadiens to spend more time on the front foot in this game. Given how many minutes Dobson logs on a nightly basis, he should be a primary benefactor of more time in the offensive zone.
- Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SN+, ESPN+
Prop #3: Dylan Larkin Over 2.5 shots
Dylan Larkin is a very consistent shot-generator, averaging three shots and just over six attempts per night. That has translated to a 67% Over rate on this total.
His volume has spiked further at home. Larkin has averaged 3.2 shots on close to 6.5 attempts per game in Detroit. He has registered three shots or more at a 70% clip.
The good times should continue against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Larkin has faced the Atlantic Division foe twice this season, combining for seven shots while going Over in each meeting.
That’s par for the course. Larkin has feasted in similar matchups this season, generating at least three shots on goal in 10 of 13 games played against teams that rank Bottom-10 in goals against – like the Maple Leafs.
Taking it a step further, he is 5/5 to the Over in such matchups at home. Larkin has averaged a whopping 4.4 shots on goal in those games.
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SN+, ESPN+
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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