The Colorado Avalanche won an uncharacteristically low-scoring game last night in Anaheim, and will look to keep it going tonight in Los Angeles as they face a Kings team that they went 7-1 SU vs. last season.
Can the Avs find their scoring touch after being held to a single non-empty net goal last night? Can the Kings tighten things up Thursday night after allowing 12 goals over their last two games?
Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for the Avalanche vs. Kings.
Avalanche vs Kings odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Avalanche opened as -200 road favorites on the second game of a back-to-back but have fallen to -185 on the ML. The total opened at 6 and leans heavily to the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Avalanche vs Kings predictions
Predictions made on 1/20/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Avalanche vs Kings game info
• Location: crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Thursday, January 20, 2022
• Puck drop: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Avalanche vs Kings betting preview
Injuries
Avalanche: Bowen Byram D (Out), Ryan Murray D (Out).
Kings: Adrian Kempe F (Out), Andreas Athanasiou F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Avalanche vs Kings head-to-head record (since last season)
Avalanche: 7-1 SU, 28 goals for.
Kings: 1-7 SU, 12 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in the Kings’ last five games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Kings.
Avalanche vs Kings picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Avalanche played to a 2-0 win last night over a very shorthanded Anaheim team but the league’s best offense managed just one goal that wasn’t an empty-netter. Pavel Francouz played great in the shutout but the Avs will go with Darcy Kuemper in net tonight. Kuemper exited his last start with an upper-body injury and hasn’t been exactly sharp over his last four games, where he owns a GAA above 3.00 and a .877 SV%.
Before we jump on the Kings, who have been outscored 12-6 over their last two games, let’s dig into the head-to-head matchup stats as these two clubs saw plenty of each other last season. In the eight meetings a season ago, the Avs dominated, won seven of the eight matches, and outscored them 28 to 12. Thursday’s projected starter for the Kings, Jonathan Quick, only saw the Avs once last season and picked up that single win. Over his career, Quick is 20-8 SU vs. Colorado with a 2.16 GAA.
The Kings may have dropped back-to-back games for the first time since early December, but they also had to play the Lightning on the back-end of a traveling back-to-back and entered the third period tied 3-3. Now they’ll have the benefit of playing a team who played last night on the road and couldn’t score against a shorthanded Anaheim.
Offensively, the Kings should be able to hang around this game as they potted four against Andrei Vasilevskiy just two nights ago and are scoring 3.13 goals per game at home this season. Colorado has been anything but a shutdown team this season, as Anaheim was missing two of its top point producers last night. Colorado has allowed three or more goals in five of its last seven games.
It’s tough to pull the trigger against a team that has won 14 of its last 16 games but this is a decent spot for the Kings, who have been playing well over the last two months and played competitively vs. the Bolts just two nights ago.
Prediction: Kings ML (+165)
Over/Under analysis
Quick has been a good target for the Over of late, as he is 6-1 O/U in his last seven starts. Over that stretch, the Kings are just 7-5 to the Over meaning Quick and his 3.68 GAA since Christmas have been the main reason for the Kings’ recent Over hits. Over those seven games, he’s allowed three or more goals five times and five or more goals three times. Quick has seen dominating stretches of play this season but he isn’t on a heater right now.
Keeping the Avs off the score sheet will be a tough task for the Kings, who allowed the San Jose Sharks to score six times just three days ago. Colorado scores more than any other team in hockey and if it weren’t for John Gibson last night, the Avs could have easily had four or five goals as they finished with 3.39 xgoals in last night’s 2-0 win.
The top line doesn’t need an introduction but the second line of Burakovsky-Kadri-O’Connor has been lights out of late, with Andrei Burakovsky riding a six-game point streak and Nazem Kadri still leading the team in points. This isn’t just a top-heavy team and with the production they’re getting from the blueline, Colorado is a threat to score on nearly every shift.
The Kings are no slouch offensively, either. They rank between the Lightning and Hurricanes in xgoal% and are surprisingly sit third in xgoals at 5-on-5 behind the Leafs and Panthers. They've also allowed five power-play goals in their last 10 kills, which should also help this total hit the Over of 6.
Last night, the Avs ran into a team that was missing its most offensive players and the final score reflected that. With Kuemper and Quick likely to face off, we doubt we’ll be seeing another Colorado shutout and expect the Kings to keep it interesting.
Prediction: Over 6 (-125)
Best bet
We aren’t complicating this one. The Avs are the best offense in the league, and they’ll have a goalie who ranks below league average in goals saved above expected/60 and is the main reason why the organization is looking to upgrade its goaltending. Colorado is 25-8-4 to the Over, which is the best mark in hockey.
Quick has been a streaky goalie this season and it looks like we can ride him on the dip tonight. The Avalanche’s two-goal game last night might also be the reason why we haven’t seen this total hit 6.5 across the board.
The Kings are coming off a game where they scored four goals — three at even strength — versus the best goalie in the league in Vasilevskiy. They rank among the best in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals and face a team on the backend of a traveling back-to-back. Quick and Kuemper are not in great form and the L.A. penalty kill has given up five goals over the last three games. Give us some goals Thursday.
Pick: Over 6 (-125)
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