Avalanche vs Blues Picks and Predictions: Don't Expect A Repeat of Season Opener

The St. Louis Blues will look to stay perfect after a 5-0 SU start to the year when they host the Colorado Avalanche who haven’t won in regulation since their opening game.

The Blues (+105) took the first meeting of the season two weeks ago, 5-3, but the Avalanche (-125) were missing Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog. These two clubs met 12 times last year with Colorado winning nine of those games including a four-game sweep in the playoffs.

Here are our free picks and predictions for Avalanche vs. Blues for Thursday, October 28.

Avalanche vs Blues odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Avalanche vs Blues picks

• Avalanche ML (-125)
• Over 6 (-115)

Picks made on 10/28/2021 at 10:01 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Avalanche vs Blues game info

• Location: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Thursday, October 28, 2021
• Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ALT, BSN

Avalanche vs Blues betting preview

Injuries

Avalanche: Devon Toews D (Out), Samuel Girard D (Out), Pavel Francouz G (Out).
Blues: Ryan O’Reilly F (Out), Oskar Sundqvist F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Avalanche vs Blues head-to-head record (2020-21)

Avalanche: 9-4 SU, 49 goals for.
Blues: 4-9 SU, 31 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 10-2-1 in Avalanche’s last 13 vs. Western Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Blues.

Avalanche vs Blues picks and predictions

Avalanche ML (-125)

The Blues exacted some revenge on last season’s four-game playoff exit with a 5-3 victory over the Avs in their opener. St. Louis jumped out to a 3-0 advantage and took a 4-1 lead late into the third. St. Louis has since ripped off another four straight wins and finds itself sitting at 5-0 SU, having given up just 11 goals.

So why are the Avalanche, who are 2-4 SU on the season, -125 favorites? Well, Colorado was missing two-thirds of its top line in that October 16 meeting as Nathan MacKinnon was on the COVID list while captain Gabriel Landeskog was suspended. MacKinnon owned the Blues last year in the regular season, compiling 14 points (six goals) in eight games while adding another nine points (six goals) in four playoff games versus St. Louis. Having him and Landeskog is a massive boost for Colorado, who was -147 at home in the meeting earlier this season.

Colorado may be 2-4 to start the year but it has had to run a gauntlet since opening up against the Blackhawks. The Avs' last four games have come against the Capitals (second in the East), Panthers (first in the NHL), Lightning (two-time Cup champs), and Golden Knights (tied for the best record last season) — don’t read too much into that slow start.

Conversely, the Blues have beaten the Kings twice and the Coyotes over their last three games and were outscored by the Avalanche 46-26 just last season (including the playoffs).

Colorado is having trouble replicating its 2021 season’s success in net with Darcy Kuemper but St. Louis’ Jordan Binnington doesn’t have great numbers for a 5-0 team, either. The young goalie is 4-0 to start the season but that comes with a 2.75 goals-against average and a decent .919 save percentage. Not terrible, but not something that is going to scare us away from the visitors. In 13 career games against the Avs, Binnington has a 3.13 GAA with a sub-.900 save percentage.

This is a classic game between an early overachieving team (St. Louis) and an underachieving one (Colorado) and the price reflects that. Still, getting the Avalanche versus a team they've had a ton of success against at -125 on the ML is a good deal. For comparison, Colorado was -228 in St. Louis for Game 4 of their playoff series last season.

The Blues will also be without No. 1 center Ryan O’Reilly, which is a big loss for them. Colorado is still the betting favorite to win the Cup at +500, so tonight it's the visitors on the ML for us.

Over 6 (-115)

Combined, both teams are 6-4 O/U to begin the year with a 6-3-1 O/U mark in the last head-to-head 10 meetings, including 4-0 O/U in the last four. 

The Blues have the highest-scoring offense in the league at 5.00 goals per game. They roll three solid scoring lines with their No. 3 line — Pavel Buchnevich-Brayden Schenn-Jordan Kyrou — leading the team in expected goals percentage.

Both teams sit in the Top 10 in expected goals/60 at 5-on-5, while the Blues actually sit in the Bottom 4 in expected goals against at even strength.

Darcy Kuemper has not found his footing in Colorado since coming over from Arizona, boasting a 3.22 GAA in five starts with a below-average .900 save percentage. He is coming off one of his better games of the year versus the Golden Knights but the Avs are giving up a lot of shots per game and Kuemper has yet to steal a game for his team this season. 

Looking at special teams, the Blues’ power play is humming along, at 6 for 16 to begin the year. Having Vladimir Tarasenko back makes a big difference with the man advantage while David Perron already has three PP goals and an assist. St. Louis' penalty kill has been exceptional but with MacKinnon back to full strength, tonight will be a real test.

The total in the last meeting closed at 5.5 (with no Nate or Landeskog) and finished 5-3 with an empty netter. Tonight’s total sits at 6 and is leaning to the Over for good cause. The Blues’ offense is hot, neither No. 1 goalie is playing great and some absences on the Colorado blueline are hurting their backend. It’s the Over for us.

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