Texans vs Cowboys Week 14 Picks and Predictions: Two-Headed Backfield Rules Lonestar State

A driving force in this Cowboys surge has been the backfield, with Tony Pollard emerging as a needed playmaker. In a massive mismatch against the Texans, our NFL betting picks expect Pollard to find the paint again.

Last Updated: Dec 11, 2022 8:10 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Tony Pollard Dallas Cowboys NFL
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The largest spread of the season is on the NFL betting board for Sunday in a Lone Star State matchup when the Houston Texans travel to Dallas to face the Cowboys.

The Texans have lost seven consecutive games and find themselves with a league-worst 1-10-1 record. The Cowboys have won three straight by a combined 80 points and have a 9-3 record. Will the Texans be able to stay competitive against one of the top teams in the league?

Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Texans vs. Cowboys on Sunday, December 11.

Texans vs Cowboys best odds

Texans vs Cowboys picks and predictions

The Texans are the worst team in the NFL this season and there are several areas of concern around the team. The offense has been terrible, ranking last in the league in yards per game and interceptions, and next to last in points per game and rushing touchdowns. They rank 27th in passing offense and 29th in rushing offense. 

However, the defense is almost just as bad. The Texans allow 23.9 points (23rd), 378.3 yards (28th), and 21.4 first downs (25th) per game. They also rank dead last in the league in rushing yards allowed per game at 169.1 per. Opponents have scored 15 rushing touchdowns against Houston this season.

This spells trouble against a Dallas team that has gone to a two-headed rushing attack with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. The Cowboys possess the seventh-ranked rushing attack in the NFL, averaging 145.9 yards per game. The Cowboys have surpassed 150 yards rushing in five consecutive contests. 

Elliott was injured in late October and had to miss two games. Pollard stepped in and ran for 131 and 115 yards in each of those two contests. Since then, Pollard has stayed heavily involved in the offense, playing at least 53% of the snaps on offense in five of the past six games. He out-snapped Elliott in two of the past three.  

Pollard has been a major player in the passing game for the Cowboys as well. He has 17 targets in the past five games and 36 targets on the season. Pollard has 25 catches for 259 yards and two touchdowns to go along with his eight rushing touchdowns and 852 yards on the ground. 

Dallas is going to have a large lead early and will be able to do what they want in the ground game. Of all the options to score an anytime touchdown, Pollard sticks out to me the most. Whether it is on the ground or through the air out of the backfield, I love his chances to find paydirt at least once on Sunday. 

My best bet: Tony Pollard anytime touchdown (-115)

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Texans vs Cowboys spread analysis

The Texans have faced some large point spreads this season, having to go up against the likes of the Eagles and Dolphins recently. However, they have yet to lose a game by more than 18 points, despite their terrible record. 

Yet, they still only find themselves 4-7-1 against the spread this season, failing to cover in four consecutive games and six of the last seven. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 8-4 ATS this year and have covered four of the past six contests. 

Wideouts Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks are both doubtful to play on Sunday for the Texans and they have several key defenders with the questionable tag. 

The Cowboys have covered eight consecutive games in the month of December and this has a chance to be a ninth. The spread is massive, but Dallas should be able to control the ground game and move the ball at will. 

Texans vs Cowboys Over/Under analysis

The Texans played a great defensive game last week against the Browns, but that was Deshaun Watson’s first game in two years and it was also a bit of a revenge game for Houston. This week will be a different story. Dallas will be able to move the ball and find the end zone.

The Cowboys have scored 28 points or more in five consecutive games. In three of those contests, they eclipsed the 40-point mark. Last week, Dallas scored 33 points in the fourth quarter alone with some help from its defense. I would not be surprised if it got another defensive score against these Texans. 

The Texans do not hit very many Overs in their games this season, but this one may be a one-sided Over from the Cowboys. The Over is 4-0 in the last four Dallas games following a win ATS. Dallas should be able to near the 40-point mark in this one and with the total set at 44, you must take the Over here.

Texans vs Cowboys betting trend to know

The Over is 23-8 in Cowboys' last 31 home games against a team with a losing road record. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Cowboys.

Texans vs Cowboys game info

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Date: Sunday, December 11, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Cowboys -17.5, 44 O/U

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