I asked for upsets, and boy, did I get one.
After a vanilla opening two weeks of the NFL season, in which favorites dominated the win column, Week 3 offered a dash of chaos.
Unfortunately, one of the three favorites to fall short of expectations was the Green Bay Packers. The Cheeseheads blew a 10-0 lead with three minutes remaining to lose 13-10 to the Cleveland Browns.
That put an end to my entry in Covers’ $10K Pro Football Survivor Pool.
However, while my pool days are dead, I’m still obligated to bring you weekly insights into which team could be a smart survivor pick and which team is the safest selection, according to the odds.
Maybe I should have steered into that safer path, but here we are. Hopefully, you can learn from my mistakes and live to see October.
Here are my best survivor pool NFL picks for Week 4.
Best survivor pool bets for Week 4
Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills
My pick: Denver Broncos
Opponent: vs. Cincinnati Bengals (MNF)
Moneyline odds: -380 (79.17% implied win probability)
The Denver Broncos have battled hard the past two weeks, but have come up short. Denver gets a break in Week 4, hosting a broken Cincinnati Bengals team on Monday night.
Cincinnati was just smashed by Minnesota and falls short in almost every area when compared to Denver. This Bengals defense is doo doo. Denver’s is elite. The Cincy offensive line is a turnstile. The Broncos’ blocking is strong. And backup Jake Browning is under center for Cincinnati, in place of Joe Burrow.
Denver can win this game on defense alone. The Broncos' pass rush will blow up the Bengals' o-line, and Browning has already seen his share of pressure and poor passing. This once mighty air attack can’t push the ball past the chains, and the Broncos’ stingy secondary won’t allow anything downfield.
Denver is a smart selection in Week 4, given the sizable spread but also its value down the road. The Broncos have some easier games coming up, but a rough home stretch. Use them now while you can.
Safest pick: Buffalo Bills
Opponent: vs. New Orleans Saints
Moneyline odds: -900 (90% implied win probability)
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen the Buffalo Bills as the “safest” pick. And it won’t be the last.
If you haven’t already burned the Bills, this Week 4 home date with the New Orleans Saints looks like a slam dunk. Buffalo is coming off a mini bye after playing last Thursday and faces a Saints squad that just got squashed by 30 points.
Rarely do we see odds this big this early into the season, but this is truly a first-versus-worst matchup when you start measuring up season win total projections and look-ahead lines.
The only thing working against selecting the Bills is that there’s more value with Buffalo later in the season, especially if you’re able to get into November.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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