Below, we look at the teams with the largest Super Bowl odds movement since they were released last February.
Odds courtesy Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Arizona Cardinals (100/1 to 40/1)
The quarterback position in the desert has been a mess since the departure of Kurt Warner so the Cardinals invested a lot in Kevin Kolb. But should a
career seven-game starter solely command the largest movement?“I don't necessarily think the Cardinals are a championship team, but they do have an opportunity to win a very soft NFC West,” said Andrew Patterson of the LVSC. “That is the reason for the adjustment, plus the public perception of the team has changed drastically.”
Arizona went 5-11 last year, ranking 27th in scoring offense (18.1 ppg) and last in third-down conversion percentage (27.8). Football Outsiders projects Kolb will add 0.8 wins to the Cardinals’ win column this season.
Outside of the uncertainty at quarterback, there are still two major problems that could prevent Arizona from not only winning the Super Bowl, but capturing the weak West.
The defense allowed 27.1 points an outing last season and 145.2 yards per game on the ground. A rookie is currently penciled in as the starting right cornerback and safety Adrian Wilson tore his right bicep Saturday.
Arizona’s offensive line is also a mess. The team tried to trade guard Deuce Lutui to Cincinnati but he failed the physical after weighing in at nearly 400 pounds. The two starting tackles, Levi Brown and Brandon Keith, were beaten like mules last year.
Detroit Lions (60/1 to 30/1)
After going 0-16 three years ago, Ndamukong Suh believes the Lions can reverse the numbers and go undefeated in 2011. Apparently there are more than a few bettors buying into the baloney.
Some shops on the strip have moved the Lions’ odds as low as 18/1, yet they still are getting action on them to win their first Super Bowl. After going 12-4 against the spread last year, there is no doubt Detroit will be a hot bet every week at the counter.
The fine print in Suh’s bold prediction was “as long as we can stay healthy.”
Matthew Stafford missed 13 games last year and six the season before because of shoulder injuries. This offseason, he guaranteed he would play every game. Running back Jahvid Best dealt with turf toe in both of his feet during his rookie campaign.
And the injury bug is still plaguing Detroit’s roster – particularly the club’s rookies. First-round pick Nick Fairley had foot surgery and will miss at least a month. Second-round selection Mikel Leshoure was carted off the field Sunday with a torn Achilles and will be out for the season.
Dallas Cowboys (10/1 to 20/1)
Is it safe to say the Cowboys aren’t America’s Team anymore? It certainly looks like they are trending away from being a public favorite at the betting window.
Along with the change in Super Bowl odds, Dallas’ underdog spread against the Jets in Week 1 has moved from 4 to 4.5. Everyone's talking about the ‘Boys 1-7 start to 2010, not their strong 6-2 finish.
The secondary is primarily the reason Dallas allowed the second-most points in the NFL last season (27.3 ppg) and the issue was not resolved.
New defensive coordinator Rob Ryan was the Cowboys best offseason acquisition but he’s already put bull’s eyes on his pass defenders backs after claiming that they will beat the Eagles’ ass. Andy Reid probably already has that quote posted in the locker room.
Indianapolis Colts (9/1 to 15/1)
Like Dallas in the NFC, everyone seems to be writing off the Colts. They must think the ship has sailed on the team that’s qualified for the playoffs nine straight years.
Peyton Manning is still one of the league’s best but the media fluff is all about Brees, Brady and Rodgers these days. Sure, Manning posted his lowest quarterback rating since 2002 last year but he was throwing to a makeshift crop of receivers. Dallas Clark only played six games while Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez and Pierre Garcon all missed at least two games.
It’s safe to say the Colts experienced a down year in 2010, and they still won the AFC South. As long as Manning is standing upright, this club will be a championship contender. Of course, we still don’t know when Peyton will be able to get back onto the field because of a lingering neck injury.
Washington Redskins (40/1 to 65/1)
Mike Shanahan’s first year as head coach of the Washington Redskins was not devoid of drama. Heading into this year, he’s a veteran quarterback and 360 pounds lighter, but there aren’t many bettors who believe the Redskins can rekindle their Super Bowl magic from the Doug Williams’ days.
Shanahan said he would stake his reputation on his two camp quarterbacks.
Rex Grossman will never be a serviceable quarterback in the NFL. John Beck has made all of four career starts and he lost each of those games with the Dolphins back in 2007. Washington only managed 18.9 points per game last season and ranked second-to-last in third-down conversion rate (29.3). These guys are supposed to significantly improve those numbers?
The defense looked inspired one week and disinterested the next. That unit gave up 30 or more points six times last season. Without a steady pass rush, the ‘Skins allowed the second-most passing yards (4,187) behind Houston.
New England Patriots (7/1 to 9/2)
No team made more noise during the free agency period than Philadelphia, but the Patriots finished second. They have the lowest odds to win Super Bowl XLVI.
Bill Belichick continued his ways of corralling veteran misfits by adding Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth to the roster. Both players have said they will go about business the Patriot Way. The best remedy for a bad attitude is winning and they've been doing that for years in Foxboro.
New England ranked first in turnover margin last year (+28) despite having a fairly young secondary and linebacker corps. Shaun Ellis will pair with Haynesworth and Vince Wilfork to forge a formidable defensive line this season.
Cincinnati Bengals (100/1 to 65/1)
Whoever is betting the Bengals to win it all, please stop, you're wasting money. This odds shift is as perplexing as Cincinnati’s quarterback situation.
“This was a move based on the action. I think they definitely finish towards the bottom of the division and will likely finish last,” said Patterson.
With Carson Palmer on the cusp of retirement, Bruce Gradkowski was brought in to compete at quarterback. But early camp reports indicate rookie Andy Dalton is getting most of the first-team snaps and is expected to start in Week 1.
Vegas oddsmakers Jimmy Vaccarro and Jay Rood said they both moved the Bengals’ regular season win total down a full game (7.5 to 6.5) since opening, and people are still pounding the under.
