The first of three games on Christmas Day features two eliminated NFC East rivals that still want to win when the Dallas Cowboys head to the nation’s capital to take on the Washington Commanders.
There are several matchup advantages for both teams that we can exploit to find great value in a few NFL player props.
Here are my top three NFL picks for the Cowboys vs. Commanders on Thursday, December 25.
Cowboys vs Commanders props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Javonte Williams |
Under 16.5 rush attempts | -115 |
 Chris Rodriguez |
Over 49.5 rushing yards | -110 |
| George Pickens |
Longest reception Over 26.5 yards | -112 |
Prop bet #1: Javonte Williams Under 16.5 rush attempts
In an October matchup against the Washington Commanders, Javonte Williams had 19 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown. However, Williams has seen his usage drop sharply over the past few weeks of the season.
Whether that's intentional or injury related, it is in play this week.
Williams has been limited in practice this week with a neck injury. That may be why he had just nine carries for 34 yards and played only 57% of the snaps in the Week 16 loss against the Chargers.
While this is typically a good matchup for running backs — with the Commanders ranking 27th in rush attempts allowed — I do not see a heavy usage rate for Williams.
The Dallas Cowboys are eliminated from the playoffs, and if they feel Williams is their running back next year, there's no reason to put a heavy workload on his shoulders while he's dealing with an injury.
Prop bet #2: Chris Rodriguez Over 49.5 rushing yards
A crowded backfield that was anyone’s guess on who would see the most usage from week to week is starting to become much clearer here to end the season.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. has played at least 41% of the snaps in each of their last four games and played 52% last week against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Even more important than the snaps is he's seen 51 of the 90 rush attempts in those four games. Rodriguez Jr. has averaged 12.8 carries for 58.8 yards over that time.
He didn’t get to play much in the October game against the Cowboys, but now, as the lead back, this is a great matchup.
Dallas ranks 30th in defending redzone rushes, 31st in defending runs out of the shotgun, and 30th in defending runs outside the tackles.
Rodriguez Jr. has shown the ability to rush in all these situations over the past few weeks, and his total is low enough it may only take around 11 carries to lock this one up.
Prop bet #3: George Pickens longest reception Over 26.5 yards
The last time these two teams played, George Pickens had four catches for 82 yards. That was an average of 20.5 yards per catch and included one for 44 yards. He's caught at least one pass for 27 yards or more in nine of his 15 games this season.
The Commanders' defense ranks 31st in overall pass efficiency, 27th in defending play action passes, and 31st in defending long passes.
Meanwhile, Pickens leads the NFL with 543 receiving yards against man coverage, which Washington runs a lot of.
The Commanders have allowed 42 passes with at least 20 air yards this season, and Pickens has 21 targets on passes that have at least 20 air yards.
He also had four targets against the Commanders of at least 10 air yards last time they played. I love him to have a repeat performance this week.
Bet on the NFL at bet365!
Bet on the NFL at bet365, where your wagers are never ordinary! Sign up now and by placing $5 on your first bet, you get $150 in bonus bets — win or lose!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
