With under 48 hours to go before the Super Bowl kicks off, the great betting flood is crashing in on sportsbooks far and wide, as money flies fast and furious in all directions. Covers checks in on the action and odds movement, with insights from Tony DiTommaso, director of risk operations for CG Technology in Las Vegas.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -1; Move: None
Kansas City has been red-hot on the field and at the betting window since mid-November, going 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in its run to Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff in Miami. In the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs (14-4 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) were a little shaky early, falling behind 17-7 in the second quarter. But Patrick Mahomes and Co. put up the next 28 points in a 35-24 victory as 7.5-point home favorites.
San Francisco won its last four games, including a pair of 17-point victories in the playoffs to earn its spot in the Big Game. The 49ers (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) got out to a 27-0 halftime lead against Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game and coasted to a 37-20 victory laying 8 points at home.
“The spread opened Chiefs -1, and we haven’t moved at all. Right now, we’re about $300,000 high to the Chiefs,” DiTommaso said of pointspread action as of Friday afternoon. “We’ve moved the moneyline a little, fluctuating between Chiefs -115 and -120. We’re at -118 now. They are betting the 49ers on the moneyline. We’re still gonna need the Niners as of now, but I think San Francisco money is coming, on the spread and the moneyline.
“I know there are still some 1.5s out there, but I think the game closes pick. I just feel the game is gonna go that way.”
On the total, CG Tech books – including at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip – opened at 52.5 and quickly got to 54.5. Late Thursday night, a bettor put $100,000 on Under 54.5 – the first reported six-figure bet on the total at any legal, regulated U.S. sportsbook – prompting CG to move to 54, and the book took a $20,000 Under 54 bet Friday.
“Even with those bets, we’re still gonna need the Under,” DiTommaso said, noting the only way that changes is if more sizable Under bets flow in, which he doesn’t anticipate.
While needing the Under is a likely lead-pipe cinch at CG, it’s hard to tell how things will go on the side between now and kickoff. But the futures book has DiTommaso and his staff in a pretty good spot.
“We win almost $500,000 to either side,” he said, before looking to address the million-dollar question of what the need will be come Sunday. “That’s a tough question to answer. But with our futures position and the Niners money that I’m anticipating, I don’t see us needing the game for a lot.
“However, if someone comes in and wants to bet $500,000 or $1 million, then it’s a whole different discussion!”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.