Jaxon Smith-Njigba is cleared to face a Denver secondary missing two starters, but our Seahawks vs. Broncos AI picks still expect a tight finish on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 pm ET on October 15 (Prime Video) from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo.
Our model projects a 23-21 win by the Seahawks as part of our NFL AI predictions for Week 6, putting us on Broncos +2.5 and Over 40.5. Below, we compare our spread pick with the Covers projections and expert selections and break down our anytime touchdown pick using odds from the best prediction market apps.
Seahawks vs Broncos AI picks
Win probability courtesy of Kalshi at time of publish; odds may vary.
Seahawks vs Broncos AI prediction
THU · 8:15 pm ET · Prime Video
Win probability based on marketMore analysis
Denver’s pass rush is its best chance to keep this within a field goal. The Broncos recorded five sacks and three takeaways against the Chargers, while Seattle gave the ball away four times in its loss to San Francisco. Denver cannot count on another turnover haul, but pressure can force hurried throws and end drives before its depleted secondary gets exposed. Taking the points leaves room for Seattle to survive another uneven performance. The half-point between our projected margin and the spread is thin, though, and a field-goal Seahawks win would beat this pick.
Seattle has a clear answer if Sam Darnold gets time: attack a secondary without Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga, with Riley Moss also questionable. Those absences strengthen the case for Over 40.5 and are the biggest threat to Denver’s cover. Joe Osborne’s Seahawks vs. Broncos prediction takes Seattle -2.5, leaning on the Seahawks’ defensive advantage. Our Over needs Denver to contribute, too. Bo Nix threw for only 123 yards last week, so the Broncos must turn manageable downs into sustained possessions instead of relying on their defense to hand them scoring chances.
Seahawks vs Broncos AI touchdown pick
Seahawks vs Broncos picks comparison
Here’s how our AI spread pick compares with the Covers projections and Joe Osborne’s expert pick. Selections are shown at each source’s published line.
| AI model | Covers projections | Covers expertBy Joe Osborne |
|---|---|---|
| DEN+2.5 | DEN+2.5 | SEA-2.5 |
The computer projects Seattle to win 21.90-21.40, an even tighter finish than our 23-21 forecast. Both models take Denver’s points; Osborne needs Seattle to win by at least three. See the full Covers projections for the score and total selections.
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How our NFL AI predictions work
Our NFL AI predictions use a custom forecasting model built with GPT-6 Astra to project a final score for each matchup using historical scoring results, team-strength ratings, game conditions, matchup details, and other relevant context for predicting the final score.
The score forecasts are fixed before we compare them with the selected Kalshi spread and total to produce our ATS and Over/Under picks. Kalshi percentages are market quotes, separate from the score forecasts. We track results against the original selections and lines at time of publish.
We’ll continue updating the process as the season develops and publicly track every published score prediction, ATS pick, and Over/Under selection.
