Best NFL Sack and Tackle Props for Week 10: Running on Empty

Defensive players don't always get the most publicity. Sure, you have the elite names like Micah Parsons and T.J. Watt, but plenty of other highly-productive defenders fly under the radar and that's where the best value sometimes lies when betting on sacks and tackle props in the NFL odds market. 

Those are some of the players I'm targeting in Week 10 odds as I'm bullish on a Cowboys star defensive end, a Seahawks edge rusher on a six-game sack streak, and bet on a Jets linebacker who often gets overshadowed by his own brother.

Here are my favorite sack and tackle NFL picks for Week 10.

This week’s best sack and tackle props

• DeMarcus Lawrence Over 0.25 sacks (+114 at DraftKings)
• Boye Mafe Over 0.25 sacks (-120 at bet365)
• Nik Bonitto Under 0.25 sacks (-180 at bet365)
• Blake Cashman Over 6.5 tackles (+120 at DraftKings)
• Quincy Williams Over 5.5 solo tackles (+100 at DraftKings)

Picks made on November 11 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of our sack picks and our tackle props

Best Week 10 sack picks

Giants vs Cowboys: DeMarcus Lawrence

While I actually faded DeMarcus Lawrence on his sacks total last week, that was due to his brutal matchup against Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson. Lawrence didn't get a sack in that contest but he still currently ranks 10th in the NFL with a pass rush grade of 83.5 according to Pro Football Focus.

I'm backing Lawrence this time around as he takes on a New York Giants offensive line that has given up a league-high 5.4 sacks per game. Lawrence typically lines up across from right tackle and the Giants certainly have issues at that spot, with struggling RT Evan Neal ruled out due to an injury and the largely untested Tyre Phillips (pass block grade of 57.5) set to replace him.

Giants rookie QB Tommy Devito was sacked six times on just 30 dropbacks last week, and with the Dallas Cowboys installed as 17.5-point faves in Week 10, they could jump out to an early lead. That type of game script would force Devito to drop back and throw more, which should ultimately lead to even more sacks for Lawrence & Co.

DeMarcus Lawrence Prop: Over 0.25 sacks (+114 at DraftKings)

Commanders vs Seahawks: Boye Mafe

Boye Mafe is quietly having a breakout season for the Seattle Seahawks. A second-round selection in 2022, Mafe has picked up at least a sack in six straight games. He gets a juicy matchup this week with the Seahawks hosting the Washington Commanders. 

The Commanders are second-last in the league with 3.9 sacks allowed per game, which has been due to several factors. Their pass blocking is subpar across the line, they pass at the highest rate in the league, and QB Sam Howell has poor pocket awareness and tends to hold on to the ball for far too long. 

Bet on Mafe to continue his sack streak on Sunday. 

Boye Mafe Prop: Over 0.25 sacks (-120 at bet365)

MNF Broncos vs Bills: Nik Bonitto

Outside linebacker Nik Bonitto leads the Denver Broncos with 5.5 sacks but there are several reasons to fade him on Sunday. Bonitto hasn't logged a sack in his last three games and his mediocre pass rush grade of 63.5 indicates that he doesn't consistently generate pressure.

It's also worth noting all 5.5 of his sacks came in three games against the Bears, Jets, and Commanders — three of the worst pass-blocking units in the league. This week he'll face a Buffalo Bills O-line that has allowed the second-fewest sacks in the league (1.4 per game) and left tackle Dion Dawkins, who has given up just a single sack all year.

In addition, Bonitto logged just 52% of Denver's defensive snaps last week, which was his lowest number since Week 1. That's due to the presence of Baron Browning, who has now recovered from offseason knee surgery and could cut into his pass rush reps moving forward.

Nik Bonitto Prop: Under 0.25 sacks (-180 at bet365)

Best Week 10 tackle picks

Texans vs Bengals: Blake Cashman

Linebacker Blake Cashman barely saw the field earlier in the season, but he's since earned a starting spot at linebacker for the Houston Texans. Cashman has logged more than 90% of the Texans' defensive snaps over the last four games and has racked up 34 total tackles during that span.

With Henry To'oTo'o ruled out for today's game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Cashman will continue to get plenty of reps, which will also mean plenty of chances to fill up the stat sheet. With the linebacker picking up at least nine tackles in three of his last four games, take the Over 6.5 on his total tackles for Sunday.

Blake Cashman Prop: Over 6.5 tackles (+120 at DraftKings)

SNF Jets vs Raiders: Quincy Williams

Quincy Williams was practically invisible on Monday Night Football, picking up just two solo tackles against the Chargers. That may have been due to a niggling knee injury that limited him in practice early in the week, but the New York Jets linebacker has no injury designation entering Sunday's contest against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Last week was just the second time this season that Williams had fewer than seven solo tackles, with the linebacker racking up a team-high 57 solo stops through eight games. The O/U on Williams' solo tackles is set at 5.5 for Sunday, a number he has gone Over in six of those eight contests.

With rookie Aiden O'Connell at QB for the Raiders, expect a conservative game plan with plenty of runs from Josh Jacobs and lots of throws to the short and intermediate ranges of the field. That should result in plenty of tackling opportunities for Williams. 

Quincy Williams Prop: Over 5.5 solo tackles (+100 at DraftKings)

How are sack and tackle props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will count as the player recording a sack. 

Books often have props for solo tackles, assists, and tackles which are made up of both solo tackles and assisted.

Best strategies to bet sack and tackle props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

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