Why wait until the playoffs to get an AFC title game?
The NFL schedule makers give us a potential conference championship pairing in Week 1, sending the Baltimore Ravens to visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football.
Not only is this a showdown between two of the top Super Bowl contenders, but also the two best players in the NFL, with Josh Allen edging out Lamar Jackson for MVP honors last season.
Here are my early Ravens vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, September 7.
Ravens vs Bills predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early SNF spread pick: Ravens +1.5 (-122)
The Baltimore Ravens are underdogs only once this season, according to the look-ahead lines, and this is it. Baltimore has been a regular-season pup just nine times the past three seasons, going 5-3-1 ATS when catching points.
The Ravens offense is capable of trading shots with the Buffalo Bills, as shown in their 35-point eruption against Buffalo last September and shootout loss in the AFC Divisional Round. The Bills' defense held its own against so-so foes, but hemorrhaged points versus the elite offensive powers. I’m not convinced this stop unit is any better than 2024.
Baltimore is the better two-way team, and defenses tend to have an edge early on in the year, as do ground-centric playbooks. The Ravens can grind out gains, controlling tempo and clock — keeping Josh Allen sidelined and wearing on a Buffalo defensive front running thin due to injuries and suspensions.
Early SNF total pick: Over 50.5 (-115)
I liked the Over at 51.5, and even with the number dipping a point to 50.5, I’m still on board.
These teams combined for 52 points in the playoffs last January, pushing with the closing total (leaving points on the table due to Mark Andrews' butter fingers). This Week 1 matchup offers a similar score and more, given it’s not being played in sub-zero temperatures.
The Ravens don’t often miss in the red zone, with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry providing more than enough scoring punch. The Bills weren’t that strong inside their own 20-yard line overall and allowed an average of more than 31 points in their five ATS losses of 2024.
And let’s not sell Allen and Buffalo short on offense. The Ravens have a great defense, but this Bills attack can keep the chains moving. Allen’s ability to make plays with his legs, convert on third down, and cash in for a TD in the red zone is right behind Lamar & Co.
Ravens vs Bills odds
- Ravens vs. Bills spread: Bills -1
- Ravens vs. Bills moneyline: Ravens +105, Bills -115
- Ravens vs. Bills Over/Under: 52.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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