The Los Angeles Rams are a long way from California when they visit the Chicago Bears and a frozen Soldier Field in the NFL Divisional Round.
This 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff could throw a little bit of everything winter has to offer at these teams, with frigid temperatures, swirling winds, and even a sprinkle of snow.
Here’s my Rams vs. Bears weather report for Sunday, January 18.
Rams vs Bears weather forecast
Forecasts vary as of this writing, but temperatures inside Soldier Field will be in the teens. The wind chill, however, could make it “feel like” -11 if gusts get as high as some models predict.
Sustained winds are expected between 15-18 mph WSW with gusts as high as 40 mph, whipping corner to corner at Soldier Field. Some forecasts have lighter gusts around 26 mph.
Additionally, some forecasts have a 55% chance of precipitation and light snow in the first half before clearing later in the evening.
How Rams vs Bears weather impacts the odds
These potential conditions suck for any team, but suck extra bad for an indoor warm-weather visitor like the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams lost at Philadelphia in winter weather during last year’s Divisional Round. However, head coach Sean McVay has downplayed any effects the Windy City will have on his team this weekend.
“We always adjust and adapt,” McVay told reporters when asked about the cold waiting for the Rams in Chicago. “(The Bears) have to be able to play in those same elements. They obviously have had a little bit more experience, but we’re not going to allow that to be an excuse.
"I think you do have to have a feel. I think the way that our guys play, I think it suits us well in any sort of conditions. ... Let’s be mindful that the ball is a little bit slicker. It feels like a rock. Other than that, let’s roll.”
Quarterback Matthew Stafford is no stranger to the Chicago climate, having spent years in the NFC North with Detroit. Stafford, who is nursing a sprained finger on his throwing hand, threw for 324 yards and two touchdowns in the snowy loss to the Eagles last January.
Historically, we see an 8% drop in passing production when game-time temperatures dip below 25 degrees. Sunday night’s game will be well below that bar.
The cold and wind will also impact the kicking game. If sustained winds flirt with 20 mph and gusts get as high as some models suggest, the corner-to-corner trajectory of those breezes will bully any longer field-goal attempts and even punts, which have been a weakness of this L.A. special teams.
Chilly temperatures also produce shorter kicks, as cold air is denser and balls don’t travel as far as they would in warm weather or indoor conditions.
Los Angeles kicker Harrison Mevis hasn’t been tested much in terms of longer FGAs, making his only attempt of 50-plus yards at home in November. Chicago leg Cairo Santos was a perfect 3 for 3 against Green Bay in the Wild Card and is 5 for 7 on FGA of 50 yards or more.
Rams vs Bears player props to watch
Given the projected cold and wind, I’m looking into the special teams markets and leaning toward the Under 49.5 yards on the longest field goal made.
These are two offenses that can push the ball downfield and two defenses that have allowed explosive passing plays. If the Bears and Rams do have to settle for field goals, I believe those kicks will come closer to the end zone to begin with.
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