Week 6 brings a fresh set of plus-money props, and there’s value in all the right places — including a quarterback who just landed in town, one coming out of a bye with extra prep, and a former Offensive Rookie of the Year stepping into a juicy matchup.
Whether you're hunting for longshots or looking to capitalize on shifting roles, the board is wide open this week.
Let’s break down the best plus-money bets in my latest NFL picks.
NFL Week 6 Predictions: Best plus money bets
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Joe Flacco |
250+ passing yards | +220 |
 Jayden Daniels |
Over 1.5 passing TDs | +110 |
 Michael Penix Jr. |
Over 1.5 passing TDs | +134 |
Joe Flacco 250+ passing yards
Betting on a quarterback who has just arrived at a new team might not seem like the best spot to hit a plus-money passing prop, but Joe Flacco is a guy who is going to throw the ball 40+ times, as only one team is allowing fewer rushing yards than the Green Bay Packers.
Matt LaFleur has also stated this week that the Cincinnati Bengals' move to go with Flacco has disrupted the team's preparation for defense this weekend, cutting into Green Bay's bye-week advantage.
Ultimately, this is a quarterback who can sling it in an offense that’s likely to be playing from behind early and often, but he also has legitimate weapons at receiver.
THE BLITZ is projecting 244 yards on 39 pass attempts. Despite throwing a trio of interceptions last week, Jake Browning finished with 251 yards on 26-of-40 passing.
Flacco can be inefficient and still eclipse this total.
Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 passing TDs
Jayden Daniels is priced the same as Spencer Rattler this week — but he’s not exactly facing an elite defense. Daniels faces the Chicago Bears at home, a team he threw for 326 yards against in Week 8 last season.
Daniels is another week removed from his knee injury, Deebo Samuel is back healthy, and the Washington Commanders get extra prep coming off a Monday night game.
Terry McLaurin is trending more doubtful than probable, but the Bears could be down multiple starters in the secondary, with Kyler Gordon (limited) and Jaquan Brisker (DNP) still questionable even after the bye. That could open up the Washington passing game, especially with this projected as the second-fastest game on the slate.
THE BLITZ is projecting 1.7 passing touchdowns this week, and with a high-profile matchup looming against Caleb Williams, this could be the spot where Daniels finally breaks out.
Michael Penix Over 1.5 passing TDs
Only four other QBs have a lower implied passing TD total, but the setting and the time off have me backing this plus-money Over.
The last time the Atlanta Falcons were on the field, Michael Penix Jr. tossed a pair of TDs, threw for 313 yards, and completed 20-of-26 passes vs. the Commanders indoors.
Meanwhile, the indoor setting increases Penix's passing volume and efficiency. At home this year, Penix is averaging 300+ passing yards on 34 pass attempts with three TDs to one interception.
The Buffalo Bills' defense is far from an elite unit, ranking 18th in EPA/play, and THE BLITZ has this as one of the better +EV passing props despite it being a slow-paced game. Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Darnell Mooney remain an elite supporting cast for the sophomore pivot.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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