The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots were destined to clash in the AFC Championship after earning the top two seeds in the conference.
But while Drake Maye leads the Patriots up the mountain this Sunday, waiting for him at the top isn’t Bo Nix. Instead, the Broncos’ hopes of making it to Super Bowl LX rest with backup QB Jarrett Stidham.
My early Patriots vs. Broncos predictions and NFL picks try to make sense of the betting madness around the AFC title game, diving into the opening odds and initial adjustments for this January 25 contest.
Patriots vs Broncos predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Patriots vs Broncos spread pick: Patriots -4.5
The look-ahead line before Nix’s ankle injury at the end of the Divisional Round win over Buffalo was Denver Broncos -1.5 versus the New England Patriots. After news hit that Nix was out, that early spread adjusted to Patriots -4.5, and that’s were the official spread opened Sunday night.
Since then, we watched one-sided money on New England rush that line to as high as Patriots -6 at some online books. The mainstream markets followed suit, jumping to -5.5 overnight.
However, we are seeing buyback on the Broncos Monday morning, and this spread has slid back to the opener of New England -4.5.
While my lean may say New England, I'm not rushing to lay -118 on the Patriots at -4.5. This spread hovers around an underrated key number of four. We see favorites in that range win but often fall short of the ATS victory (faves between -4 and -4.5 are 4-15 ATS this season). I'm more inclined to shop the moneyline market and avoid the point spread all together.
The big question you need to ask is how much is Bo Nix really worth to the spread?
Given the initial adjustment, bookmakers pegged his impact around six points (-1.5 to +4.5). But looking into the difference between Nix and Stidham, the passing game may not take too much of a hit.
Denver runs a conservative pass attack to begin with an average of 6.4 yards per attempt (29th) and among the lowest air yard metrics in the NFL. The Broncos are much more dependent on yards after the catch. Nix also gives the Broncos a rushing option when plays break down. Stidham doesn't present that same threat.
Nix isn’t the only casualty from Saturday’s game. Receivers Pat Bryant (concussion) and Troy Franklin (hamstring) left that contest with two injuries that are tough to overcome, even with an extra day between games.
Given the state of the passing game, the Broncos will need to rely on a ho-hum rushing attack against a Patriots run stop that just got healthy. New England allowed only 87 and 48 rushing yards in its two postseason games so far.
Early Patriots vs Broncos total pick: Under 41.5
The look-ahead total for this matchup before Nix was hurt was 45.5 points. That dropped to 40.5 before the weekend and books kept that official opener close, with the number at 40.5 Sunday night.
Along with the move back toward the Broncos, we’ve seen this total tick up to 41.5 — through the key number of 41 points.
As mentioned, I don’t have high expectations for the Broncos offense considering the injuries to the passing game and the Patriots ability to shut down the run. Defensively, we know we’re going to get an all-out effort from the Broncos’ top-tier stop unit.
New England did score 28 points against Houston’s elite defense on Sunday, but that includes a defensive touchdown and extra possessions thanks to five turnovers from the Texans.
Overall, the Patriots picked up just 13 first downs and averaged less than four yards per play with just one trip to the red zone. New England was also 3-for-14 on third downs and faces a Broncos defense that sits Top 5 in third down conversions allowed and TD rate inside the red zone.
Patriots vs Broncos odds
- Patriots vs Broncos spread: Patriots -4.5
- Patriots vs Broncos moneyline: Broncos +200 | Patriots -240
- Patriots vs Broncos Over/Under: 41.5
How to watch Patriots vs Broncos
- Patriots vs Broncos matchup
- Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026, 3:00 p.m. ET
- City: Denver, CO
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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